Ayman Muhana: “The whole world will pay for a large-scale war” –

^_«Dthere is no sector of Lebanese society that is not now seriously disrupted” the Lebanese executive director of the Samir Kashir Foundation for Freedom of Expression (based in Beirut) comments on “Vima” Ayman Muhana describing his desperate attempt to escape the country. “Those who can choose mainly Cyprus and Turkey” he adds, judging the “unilateral”, from Hezbollah‘s point of view, connection of the Gaza and Lebanon fronts to be disastrous and “stronger” than ever the risk of an Israeli strike on Iran.

How is the situation in South Lebanon and Beirut?

“There is absolute despair. More than a quarter of the population is displaced. Entire villages in South Lebanon and the southern suburbs of Beirut are destroyed. Displaced people are everywhere, including in Beirut’s public squares and sidewalks, as people try to flee to the mountains north of the capital. It is extremely traumatic for those who lived through the 1975-1990 civil war, then the 2006 war with Israel, and then the Beirut port explosion in 2020. Hospitals are stretched to their limits. The education sector has collapsed. The economic crisis has made even distance learning difficult due to power outages, internet problems, etc. Basically, there is no sector of Lebanese society that is not now seriously disrupted. But even more dangerous is what can happen the next day. If neither Hezbollah nor the Lebanese government is able to financially compensate the victims, who will cover the costs of their return and reconstruction? The international community will not do so unless it sees Hezbollah weakened and the Lebanese government promoted real reforms. Conditions that are unlikely to be met. The consequences will be dire.”

Is Hezbollah able to fight Israel today?

“Hezbollah is better equipped and better trained than Hamas. Even a year after October 7, we see Hamas still fighting. This means that Hezbollah, technically, can still fight. However, the question is why Hezbollah is waging this fight. To continue supporting Gaza? There is no evidence to that effect, given the scale of the devastation in Gaza. Is Hezbollah fighting to deter Israel from further attacks? Also, this is not achieved. Is it being done to bring the displaced back to their homes? This requires more than armed struggle. Further fighting means further destruction for Lebanon and further death and despair for the people.”

How does the Lebanon factor affect the general balances in the region?

“Unfortunately, the unilateral linking of the Gaza and Lebanon fronts by Hezbollah, without consultation or approval from any other party or the government, has not only helped to reduce the pressure on Gaza, but has also brought disaster to Lebanon. Iran’s position is the most interesting. In public speeches he vows to support Hezbollah and Hamas. However, in practice, Iranian involvement was minimal or symbolic. Iran considered its proxies a “line of defense” for its nuclear program. The proxies believed that, in return, Iran would defend them if they were attacked. The past few weeks have clearly proven otherwise. So how will Iran be able to defend its nuclear program without its proxies? Through an agreement with the US? Is the Biden administration capable of achieving this? Iran is in a very delicate position. I do not believe that Tehran will further escalate the conflict due to its limited resources after the recent failures of its allies. The risk, however, of a serious Israeli attack on Iran is real and stronger than ever, with Iran’s ability to respond limited. However, the whole world will have to pay the consequences of a large-scale regional war.”