Axios: Biden warned Netanyahu of a military operation in southern Gaza after the end of the truce

US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said on Wednesday that he would seek to extend the truce in Gaza during his upcoming visit to Israel.

Blinken explained after a NATO meeting in Brussels: “Over the next two days, we will focus on doing everything we can to extend the truce so that we can continue to extract more hostages and provide more humanitarian aid.”

He added, according to Reuters: “We would like to see the extension of the truce because of what we achieved – first and foremost, the release of the hostages and their return to their homes and to the care of their families.” Blinken said that he believes that the extension is also in Israel’s interest. Pointing out that “they are also very focused on returning their citizens to Israel; “So we are intensifying our efforts to achieve this.”

Blinken is scheduled to make his third visit to the Middle East since the outbreak of war, to meet with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Tel Aviv, and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas in Ramallah. The current truce in Gaza is scheduled to end on Thursday morning, which began six days ago after the war launched by Israel on the Gaza Strip following the unprecedented Hamas attack on Israel.

During the past weeks, American efforts focused on supporting Israel and its right to defend itself. Then it exerted some pressure to avoid the death of a large number of Israeli civilians in the ongoing Israeli bombing of the northern Gaza Strip. Then it engaged directly in efforts to establish a truce for four days and then for two days and to maintain the implementation of the truce. A deal to release hostages and increase humanitarian aid. It was keen to promote its strategy of negotiation diplomacy and communication to release the hostages and recover the American hostages held by Hamas. However, the US administration is facing increasing pressure to clarify its plans during the coming period.

Hostages and the price of the deals

The US administration faces difficult questions related to its ability to release the eight Americans currently detained by Hamas, as all American engagement with the Qatari and Egyptian mediators only resulted in the release of the four-year-old American-Israeli child, Abigail Aidan.

The US administration sent its most prominent officials to the region to discuss the issue of the release of American hostages held by Hamas. Both William Baines, Director of US Intelligence, and Brett McGurk, Senior White House Advisor for Middle East Affairs, are seeking a deal to achieve the release of hostage American men and Israeli soldiers. This raises questions about the price and incentives that can be offered in exchange for concluding this deal?

The US administration does not have answers about the confirmed number of Americans detained in Gaza, and whether they are prisoners of “Hamas” or “Islamic Jihad.” Criticism is increasing from the Republican Party against the Biden administration, its weak influence, and its inability to conclude a deal to release the American hostages, while the efforts of the State of Thailand succeeded in releasing the Thai and Filipino hostages held by Hamas.

The possibility of resuming fighting after the end of the truce increases the uncertainty about the fate of these hostages. Which makes the US administration intensify pressure on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to extend the ceasefire period and extend the truce, even temporarily, until this goal is achieved.

The US administration also faces difficult questions about the next phase after the end of the truce, especially since the resumption of fighting is very likely, with the increase in the number of civilian casualties and a repetition of what happened before the truce, including bombing of civilian areas and sieges of hospitals. If Israel carries out military operations in the south of the Gaza Strip, which is densely populated with Palestinians, the chances of civilian casualties in large numbers will remain very high.

But the Israeli narrative stresses that the long extension gives Hamas an opportunity to reorganize its ranks, promote political victories, gain greater popularity among the Palestinians and influence the Israeli psyche, and thus the Israeli statements confirm the resumption of fighting after the end of the truce.

The resumption of fighting once again provokes a growing regional and international reaction against Israel, with repercussions related to the United States losing the support of regional and international allies and partners. This raises questions about whether Biden will turn away from his support for Netanyahu in resuming the persecution of Hamas and resuming fighting in the southern Gaza Strip, or whether he will be able to exert pressure to push for a permanent ceasefire, as UN bodies and Western countries demand.

White House officials indicated to reporters, on Monday evening, that the United States had sent clear warnings to Israel of the need to avoid civilian casualties in the fighting and to resume military operations “more precisely” that would not impede the arrival of humanitarian supplies, while avoiding the mass displacement of Palestinians and avoiding a humanitarian crisis that would overwhelm the world’s capacity. To respond to it. This appears to be the “strongest warning” issued by the Biden administration to the Israeli side since the start of the war, but in the end it gives the green light for the continuation of Israeli military operations, without setting clear red lines for these operations.

Constant internal pressure

Biden is facing more dramatic internal pressures, as indicated by the Washington Post, including a division among White House staff over the administration’s policies in the ongoing war, and division within the Democratic Party itself, in addition to the dangers of American voters turning away from Biden, from the Democratic Party’s youth, progressives, and voters. From the Arab and Muslim communities; This will represent a more severe political headache in the coming weeks and months if the fighting in Gaza continues.

Questions from legislators

Biden faces successive questions from lawmakers in Congress, demanding ideas about the administration’s plans for a ceasefire in Gaza and ending the war, and the period required to achieve this. The controversy is increasing within legislative circles in Congress over the amount of $14 billion that President Biden requested from Congress as military aid to Israel. Democratic Senator Bernie Sanders criticized what he called the “blank check approach” followed by the United States with Israel.

Some lawmakers raised the issue of setting conditions on American aid to Israel, how to curb its brutal military campaign in Gaza, and how to listen to American advice. Some went on to demand that American red lines be set for the right-wing Israeli government.

Lawmakers raise important questions about responsibility for the enormous human suffering in Gaza, the possibility of Israel running out of military equipment and the extent of the United States’ ability to continue supplying Israel with ammunition, the administration’s perceptions of who will rule the Gaza Strip if Hamas is pursued and removed from the overall picture, and the ability of the Palestinian Authority. To carry out this task, then plans for the reconstruction and reconstruction of the Gaza Strip. In addition to demands to clarify the US administration’s plans regarding implementing the “two-state solution,” the future of Gaza and the Palestinian issue as a whole.

Concerns are increasing within American political circles about sliding into a broad regional conflict after American facilities were subjected to repeated attacks in Syria and Iraq, and then the risks to which the Americans are exposed from the Houthis in Yemen after the Iranian-backed Houthi group launched two ballistic missiles towards an American warship in the Gulf. Aden last Sunday.

Moral responsibility!

There are many questions and controversy in the medium and long term about the responsibility of the American administration from a legal and moral perspective and its connection to a military campaign that resulted in the killing of more than 13,000 Palestinians, the displacement of thousands, widespread destruction, and a humanitarian catastrophe that the world has not witnessed since the last century. Questions about the extent of the impact of this war on damaging the reputation of the United States and its political weight in the region, and the double standards and different American positions in dealing with the facts of the Israeli war in Gaza and the facts of the Russian war in Ukraine.

Although President Biden carried the message of uniting the American people when he came to power in January 2021, the current divisions within the administration, within the Democratic Party, and in the American street are causing a wide political headache that may afflict the Biden administration because of this war. Opinion polls showed that American sympathy shifted from Israel to the Palestinians, and Israel became viewed as a “brute force” against the vulnerable Palestinians fighting for their survival.

Officials hope that the conflict will not extend for months and overshadow Biden’s electoral campaign to win a second term in November 2024, amid a difficult and arduous electoral race. Even if Biden succeeds in escaping the political consequences of the war’s impact on his election campaign, this war will remain stuck in the guise of his historical legacy.

The “two-state” dilemma

Despite the optimistic statements issued by the US administration and its officials about the two-state solution being the only path to ending the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, they face great doubts. US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken’s visit to the region aims to set broad lines for the resumption of two-state solution talks after the war, leading to the establishment of a Palestinian national state alongside Israel. But there are no positive indicators from the Israeli side about this matter, in addition to the doubts of the Palestinian side.

Blinken called for the unification of Gaza and the West Bank under the control of the Palestinian Authority, but there are serious doubts between Israelis and Palestinians about the ability of President Mahmoud Abbas (88 years old) to unite the Palestinians and impose control over the West Bank and Gaza Strip.

Analysts point out that this war has increased the difficulty of reaching a two-state solution and ending the decades-long conflict, which has eluded the capabilities of many successive American administrations, whether Democratic or Republican.

For its part, Newsweek magazine points out that the psychological distance between the Palestinian and Israeli sides at the current stage complicates the chances of sitting at the negotiating table in order to reach an agreement to implement the two-state solution.

The pessimism about the Biden administration’s ability to impose pressure to implement the two-state solution stems from the ambiguity of the American vision, and the lack of clear answers to the complex questions that constitute the core of this conflict. What are the borders that will be drawn between the Israeli state and the hoped-for Palestinian state? What is the fate of the city of Jerusalem and the fate of the Israeli settlements in the West Bank, where the Palestinians seek to establish their state? What about the right of return for refugees, and how will the American administration deal with Israeli demands for security guarantees and the establishment of a demilitarized Palestinian state?

The important questions are: Is there a real intention among the parties to agree to reach a diplomatic solution once the war ends?