Fantasy Baseball 2025: Risky Second Basemen and Smart Draft Strategies

As fantasy baseball managers gear up for teh 2025 season, the second base position presents a complex landscape of choices. Investing heavily in top-tier players like Mookie Betts or Ketel Marte is one strategy, while gambling on breakout stars in later rounds or targeting undervalued veterans are other options. With Betts as the only second baseman commanding a first-round pick and Marte as the sole other option within the top 44 in ADP (Average Draft position), the subsequent tiers offer a mix of established names like Jose Altuve, Ozzie Albies, and Marcus Semien, followed by younger, less proven players outside the top 100. However, some players warrant a more cautious approach due to concerns about their 2024 performance and future outlook.

Fantasy baseball success hinges on careful analysis and understanding potential pitfalls. While numerous options exist at second base, some players warrant a more cautious approach. This analysis delves into several second basemen whose 2024 performance and future outlook raise concerns for fantasy managers in 2025.

Ozzie Albies, atlanta Braves, 51 ADP

The primary concern surrounding ozzie Albies centers on his health. Over the past five seasons, Albies has been available for only 496 of 708 regular season games, representing a 70.1% availability rate. This includes missing meaningful time in two of the last three seasons, and playing only 29 of 60 possible games during the shortened 2020 season.

Beyond injury concerns, Albies‘ performance in 2024 appeared diminished. His wOBA (weighted on-base average) was just .307, and his xwOBA (expected weighted on-base average) of.302 suggests this wasn’t simply bad luck. His Statcast metrics declined notably from 2023, with his hard-hit rate dropping from 39.0% to 32.0%. His xSLG (expected slugging percentage) was a significant 80 points lower than in 2023, when he hit a career-high 33 home runs in 148 games.

Without consistent power production – he managed only 10 home runs in 99 games last season – Albies‘ fantasy value diminishes. He has exceeded 15 stolen bases only onc and has hit .271 or lower in four of the past five years.

While his youth and the strength of the Atlanta Braves lineup offer the potential for a rebound, investing a premium draft pick in Albies carries considerable risk. As the analysis suggests, Ther are enough intriguing young options that have the potential to provide the same type of production at a fraction of the cost.

Marcus Semien, Texas Rangers, 60 ADP

Marcus Semien stands in stark contrast to Albies regarding durability. He has been remarkably consistent throughout his MLB career, playing at least 159 games in six consecutive full seasons and at least 161 games in four of the past five. his consistent presence in the lineup is a valuable asset.

However, age is becoming a factor. Turning 35 in 2025, Semien may be past his peak performance years. Signs of decline emerged in 2024. His batting average dropped nearly 40 points compared to his first year with the Rangers (.276 vs. .237), and his .699 OPS (on-base plus slugging) was his second-lowest as becoming a full-time player in 2015.

While Semien still makes consistent contact,his power has diminished. He ranked in the 10th percentile for swing speed and the 19th percentile for average exit velocity. He hit just 23 home runs last season, and projections for 2025 are modest, with Steamer projecting 25 home runs and THE BAT X forecasting only 20.

Last year, Semien finished as the No. 10 second baseman in the ESPN fantasy Player Rater. For someone who played 160 games, that’s not all that encouraging. His overall impact is declining, making him a risky pick inside the top 100, especially given his ESPN ADP of 35.

Xander Bogaerts, San Diego Padres, 146 ADP

Xander Bogaerts‘ performance has been trending downward for several years, with regression finally catching up in 2024. Despite declining underlying metrics, he previously maintained a high batting average due to favorable batted-ball luck. In his final year with the Red Sox, he hit .307 despite a .259 xBA (expected batting average), fueled by an inflated .362 BABIP (batting average on balls in play). A similar pattern occurred in 2023, with an actual .285 average versus a .255 expected average.

However, in 2024, his actual production plummeted. While his xBA remained consistent with previous seasons at .262,his actual batting average dropped to .264, and his .307 OBP (on-base percentage) was more than 40 points lower than the previous year.

Without a high batting average, bogaerts‘ fantasy value is limited. He has hit fewer than 20 home runs in three straight seasons and has stolen more than 15 bases only once in his career.

A bounce-back season for Bogaerts in his age-32 season seems unlikely. Playing half his games in San Diego,a less hitter-friendly surroundings,further diminishes his potential. Like Semien, Bogaerts might not kill your team in any one area, but he’s living more off reputation than anything else at this point.

Gleyber Torres, Detroit Tigers, 190 ADP

The move to the Detroit Tigers raises questions about weather Gleyber Torres can benefit from a change of scenery in 2025. leaving yankee Stadium, a favorable hitting habitat, is not ideal. While Yankee Stadium is more beneficial for left-handed hitters, it still ranks as the second-best ballpark for home runs for right-handed batters.Comerica Park, his new home in Detroit, ranks only 24th in the same category. Torres already experienced a significant power reduction last season, ranking in the 28th percentile for xSLG, making a significant enhancement in Detroit unlikely.

Furthermore, Torres will not have the same level of lineup protection in Detroit. He routinely hit near the top

Fantasy Baseball’s Riskiest Second Basemen: A Deep Dive into Draft day Decisions

Is your fantasy baseball draft strategy doomed to fail before it even begins? Many seemingly safe second basemen harbor hidden risks that could sink your season.

Interviewer: Welcome, Mr. Miller, lead analyst for Fantasy Baseball Insights. The recent article on risky second basemen has generated a lot of buzz. can you elaborate on the key factors fantasy managers shoudl consider when evaluating this crucial position?

Mr. Miller: Absolutely. Choosing a second baseman involves a complex interplay of factors beyond simple batting averages and home runs.Understanding a player’s injury history, age-related decline, ballpark effects, and even their place within a team’s batting order is paramount. We need to go beyond surface-level stats.

Injury History: The Silent killer of Fantasy Success

Interviewer: Let’s start with injuries. The article highlights Ozzie Albies’ injury concerns. How significant is injury history when weighing draft-day decisions for second basemen?

Mr. Miller: Injury history is absolutely crucial. Albies,for instance,demonstrates the devastating impact of frequent injuries. His inconsistent availability significantly impacts his overall fantasy value, regardless of his potential when healthy. Look for players with proven durability and a history of consistent playing time—that’s where you’ll find reliable fantasy performance. Consistency is king in fantasy baseball, and that includes staying on the field. ignoring a player’s injury history can be a costly mistake.Rather, consider players demonstrating a low likelihood of missing games due to injury. It’s significant to analyze player health profiles before committing many draft picks.

Age and Performance: The Unavoidable Decline

Interviewer: The article also mentions Marcus Semien and age-related performance decline. At what point should fantasy managers start factoring age into their projections for second basemen?

Mr. Miller: Age is a critical factor to consider with second basemen, and it’s often overlooked. While Semien’s durability is notable, his age (at the time of baseball season) is catching up to him. We see a gradual decline in key metrics like power and batting average as players enter their mid- to late thirties. This wasn’t entirely unexpected.However, understanding that age-related decline is a process, not an abrupt event, is essential. You should examine trends over multiple seasons to find meaningful regressions—this gives a much better picture than a single off-season. It’s a matter of identifying the potential signs of this decline.

Ballpark Factors: Location, Location, Location

Interviewer: The article points to Gleyber Torres’ move to Comerica Park. How significant is the ballpark factor when assessing a second baseman’s fantasy potential?

Mr. Miller: The ballpark factor significantly affects offensive production, specifically for power hitters. The shift from Yankee stadium,a hitter-friendly park,to Comerica Park,which is significantly less advantageous for right-handed hitters like Torres,is a substantial consideration. When considering a player’s offensive trajectory, always factor in their home stadium’s impact on their potential output. A player projected for 30 home runs in one park may only hit 20 in another. Always research the park factors before making your draft choices.

Lineup Protection: The Unsung hero

Interviewer: The article mentions Torres’ reduced lineup protection in Detroit. How much does the order in which the batters hit impact their performance?

Mr. Miller: Lineup protection is incredibly important. Hitting behind strong hitters who get on base creates more opportunities for RBI, a significant statistic in fantasy baseball. A player who’s always coming up with runners on base automatically raises the ceiling of their potential scoring output. A player hitting in a weak lineup might be less likely to have base runners ahead of him and thus not score as many RBIs. Always consider the overall team offensive performance and where this player is positioned in the team’s batting lineup.

Identifying Undervalued Talents

interviewer: Beyond avoiding risky picks, how can managers identify undervalued second basemen who represent more confident investments, considering the factors we discussed?

Mr. Miller: Identifying undervalued players is key to winning your fantasy league. Deep statistical analysis, using metrics like xwOBA (expected weighted on-base average) and xSLG (expected slugging percentage), helps separate luck from skill. it’s critically important to look at these deeper statistics to project production and discover players who potentially exceed their ADP (Average Draft Position). This analytical approach requires looking outside of the top 100 and identifying players who have the potential to match or exceed the performance of highly-rated players who carry additional risks.

Final Thoughts

Interviewer: Any final words of wisdom for fantasy baseball managers facing those critically important second base decisions?

Mr. Miller: Remember, successful fantasy baseball drafting isn’t just about picking the “best” players; it’s about managing risk effectively. By carefully considering injury history, age, ballpark factors, lineup protection, and utilizing advanced metrics, you can significantly improve your chances of assembling a competitive and dependable team. Don’t be afraid to dig deep and perform your own due diligence before making key decisions during your draft. Share your draft strategies and thoughts in the comments below!