China-Australia relations are at a trough, and the geopolitical struggle between China and Australia shows no signs of easing. After China boycotts a variety of Australian products, it has reportedly made Australia feel painful. Australian media quoted experts as saying that the Chinese market is difficult to replace and Australia needs to improve relations with Beijing; and James Laurenceson, Dean of the Institute of Australia-China Relations at the University of Technology Sydney recently published an article saying that China will be stronger in the new year. With greater influence, Australia may feel more pressure.
Lawrenceson’s article was published on The Conversation website. China has determined that Australian leaders have violated previous commitments, that is, not guiding the country to form a security alliance with the United States and jointly targeting China. This has led to China’s hostility to Australia in 2020; but Canberra Relations with Beijing are still deteriorating and it is expected that there will be no turnaround this year, 2021.
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China’s national strength has maintained the direction of China-Australia relations this year. Lawrenceson analyzed in the article that as of the end of 2019, China’s GDP was US$14.3 trillion, which is two-thirds of the US’s total GDP of US$21.3 trillion. As a result of the pneumonia epidemic, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that China’s economic scale by the end of 2021 will jump from two-thirds of that of the United States to three-quarters.
Scholar: Australia needs to improve relations with China
In addition, when taking into account cost differences and measuring their purchasing power, China’s GDP is actually 10% larger than that of the United States.
In this context, the article deduced that China is unlikely to reduce pressure on Australia in the short term; in fact, scholars generally explain that China should use the intensity of its treatment of Australia to remind Southeast Asian countries of the benefits of maintaining good relations with China and once confrontation China’s price.
For Australia is trying to find other markets to replace China, the Australian media is not optimistic. ABC (Australia News Network) quoted scholars as saying that this solution is a wrong path. If Sino-Australian relations do not improve, the pain caused by accepting Chinese sanctions is inevitable.
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ABC quoted statistics from the Australian government. Last fiscal year, China accounted for 32.6% of Australia’s exports, far behind Japan (13.1%), the second largest exporter, followed by South Korea, the United States, India, New Zealand, Singapore, and Taiwan. Regions, the United Kingdom, Malaysia, the 3rd to 10th places share between 5.9% and 2.5%.
This reflects that it is not easy to get rid of the Chinese market. ABC’s interview with Lawrenceson pointed out that Australia’s desire to find other markets to replace China “is embracing false hopes.” He said: “In 2020, China’s GDP is expected to grow by 1.9%, the United States will decline by 4.3%, and the Eurozone will regress by 8.3%. India, which many people think is the best hope for replacing China, will shrink by 10.3%. Even ASEAN will also decline by 3.4%. “
Australia’s export market, China can reach many countries
Lawrenceson pointed out that although the Chinese authorities have blocked the import of a series of Australian products, China’s share of Australian exports continues to rise, because other countries have not escaped the impact of the epidemic, and entering new markets is not completely cost-free. , It is necessary to establish a brand image, a sales network, and to accept a decline in profits. “Because the other party lacks demand, you must lower the price.”
Lawrenceson believes that companies must have diversified and comprehensive strategies to hedge risks. They do not want to get rid of dependence on China. He also cited a proposal he agrees with. For example, universities should invest the profits made by international students into funds. This fund can be used when international students cannot come to Australia due to the epidemic or political reasons.
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Editor in charge: Deng Guoqiang
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