Hong Kong (CNN Business) – It was not long after Australia’s first calls for an international investigation into the origins of the pandemic of coronavirus before rumors of retaliation arose from Beijing.
Australian Chancellor Marise Payne initially voiced support for an investigation on a television show on a Sunday morning in late April.
Days later, the Chinese ambassador to Australia, Chen Jingye, responded by suggesting that the Chinese themselves could retaliate with a boycott. “Maybe ordinary people (in China) will say‘ Why should we drink Australian wine? Eating Australian beef? ‘”He told the Australian Financial Review.
Less than a month later, the campaign to punish Australia appears to be in full swing.
On May 12, China stopped accepting beef from four large Australian slaughterhouses, citing health problems. Five days later, China imposed tariffs of more than 80% on Australian barley imports as part of an anti-dumping investigation.
(Photo by GREG BAKER / AFP via Getty Images)
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China is by far Australia’s largest trading partner, with total trade between the two countries totaling more than $ 214 billion in 2018 alone. As Australia faces the very real prospect of a recession related to the coronavirus, that economic relationship is more important than ever.
With the breakdown of ministerial ties and the rise of anti-Australian rhetoric in Chinese state media, experts say deep cracks are emerging in relations between the two countries.
“It is very difficult to see how, in the absence of any negotiation, we can quickly rebuild trust in the relationship,” said Richard McGregor, senior fellow at the Lowy Institute.
Globally, experts say Australia is seen as a test case: can a liberal democracy with close trade ties to the authoritarian regime in Beijing maintain a politics independent outside, who will sometimes be critical of the Chinese Communist Party?
Deep cold
For decades Canberra has been caught between a rising China, bringing great economic wealth to Australia, and her own long-standing security ties to United States.
The vast majority of Australia’s exports to China are raw materials such as iron ore, coal, gold and wool, to fuel the country’s rapid economic growth, while importing large quantities of consumer goods and technical components.
Relations between the two sides began to sour in 2017 when Australia introduced comprehensive new security legislation designed to crack down on foreign interference in domestic politics.
Beijing believed that the laws were directed directly at them and put Australia on a diplomatic freeze.
It was in this cold environment that Payne, Australia’s foreign minister, first called for an investigation into the origins of the coronavirus pandemic on April 19. Soon after, Prime Minister Scott Morrison was the first international leader outside the United States to request a formal investigation.
“It would seem completely reasonable and sensible that the world would like to have an independent assessment of how all of this happened,” Morrison said at a press conference on April 29.
The issue of how the coronavirus started has become increasingly politicized in recent months, as Washington and Beijing try to use it to distract from internal economic problems.
Calls for an investigation intensified the dispute between China and Australia. Ambassador Cheng was summoned by the Australian government and accused of “economic coercion” for his comments on wine and meat exports.
When a journalist for an Australian newspaper said at a press conference in Beijing on April 28 that he “had never heard” comments as harsh as Cheng’s from people in the Chinese capital, Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang He replied, “Do you want to hear some now?”
Similar comments can easily be found on the Chinese internet, Geng said.
Following Australian meat and barley decisions, Commerce Minister Simon Birmingham said on May 13 that Chinese officials had insisted that the restrictions had nothing to do with Australia’s calls for an independent investigation.
“We have been very clear, we are not about to change our political positions under any economic threat, suggestion or coercion,” he told the Australian Broadcasting Corporation. Birmingham and Agriculture Minister David Littleproud confirmed that calls to their Chinese counterparts had not been answered.
Experts said Beijing’s decisions were almost certainly retaliatory. China expert McGregor said Beijing was likely to want to use Australia to send a message to the world.
“When China wants to punish a country, they do it in public so that that country and its population clearly know that there is a price for angering China,” he said.
The relationship with the USA
As relations between Canberra and Beijing deteriorate, the debate is growing within Australia over whether the country needs to put more pressure on the Chinese government.
In late April, Andrew Hastie, a government representative for the National Liberal Coalition, posted a petition on his website asking the government to “take action on Australian sovereignty.”
“The coronavirus pandemic has exposed the true cost of relying too heavily on an authoritarian regime like China for our economic security and prosperity,” the petition says. Hastie is also the Chairperson of the Australian Joint Parliamentary Committee on Intelligence and Security.
But former Australian Foreign Minister Bob Carr said Canberra was risking economic ties to Beijing in what appeared to be an attempt to solidify his security relationship with Washington. “We have positioned ourselves against any US ally. USA apparently to carry out a policy of confrontation towards China, “Carr said.
He said there was an impulse from Australia to act as “the deputy sheriff of the United States,” in the mistaken belief that closer ties to Washington would protect the country from aggressive movements in Beijing.
“There is a crazy point of view in Canberra that if China inflicts pain on us, our job is to properly bear it and present ourselves as self-sacrificing allies of the United States, doing what our master asks of us,” Carr added.
The blows to Australia’s agricultural exports come as the Chinese government tries to find billions of dollars in new imports from the United States as part of a phase one agreement that followed a truce in the trade war between the United States and China.
“It is very, very likely that American exporters growing agricultural products will fill the gap that will cause the exclusion of Australian farmers,” Carr said.
Inflection point
There are still many areas of trade with China that are unaffected by tensions, including the multi-billion dollar trade in iron ore, which Beijing desperately needs for its ambitious infrastructure program.
But there are already signs that there could be more pain to come. Despite China agreeing to a coronavirus investigation Monday at the World Health Assembly, relations with Australia have not improved.
In an article Wednesday, Bloomberg quoted sources as saying that Chinese officials had drawn up a list of possible future targets for retaliation, including Australian shellfish, oats and fruit.
Carr called for more diplomacy between Australia and China to help rebuild the damaged relationship, but another former Australian foreign minister said it was important for Canberra to take a position on this issue.
Speaking to Australian National Radio on Tuesday, former Foreign Minister Alexander Downer said China’s move against Australian barley appeared to be “punishment” for the country’s action to push an international investigation.
“My whole experience with China is that they will try to intimidate you as much as they can … I am sorry for the barley farmers, but at least we have not relented or been intimidated by them and we have the research that we wanted,” he said.
Regardless of Canberra’s decision, China expert McGregor said Beijing must be careful of pressure on Australia, especially at a time when countries in Europe and Asia are rethinking how close they want to be to China.
“If they see China punishing a democracy simply for making an insignificant comment about the need for an investigation into what happened to the virus, then that will make many of them also wonder how they should manage relations with China,” he said. .
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