Miguel Angel Sandoval
One of the topics that was discussed with great passion when the results of the elections in the first round on 25J were known, was the wide level of invalid votes and blank votes. It depends from where the phenomenon is analyzed, it can be said that the elections did not have greater legitimacy, since the invalid vote came first in the vote count.
Indeed, around 17% of voters opted for the null vote, since they did not see anything similar to an option in the elections, since the main parties, especially those favored by the polls, did not even raise an eyebrow of any voter. In the presence of the parties Valor, Cambio, Radical (I don’t know if there were), My family, Victoria, Elefante, etc. People did not feel represented at all. It is the underlying reason, together with the weariness of corruption, the customs of politicians to the tortrix, for which people chose to vote null.
“In 2015, the percentage of blank and null votes was 9.2%, four years later, in 2019, it rose to 13.14%, and beware! in the elections of June 25, 2023 the percentage rose to 24.4%.” Free Press. 06.27.2023 In other words, a quarter of the votes were null or blank, with which the rejection of the political system is more than obvious, and many things can be said about it, but I would highlight at least two: the first is that people expressed their rejection of the system by voting. And that is a democratic achievement.
Abstentionism was not used, but a system tool was used to say that we are fed up, that we want a change. And for this reason it is worth reflecting on the invalid vote, and the blank vote. And the second is the collapse of the political party system, which on this occasion is completely funded, because despite the result of the UNE, their dismal campaign in the second round, places them before the worst results in their existence.
But not so with the electoral system that exists in the country and that, despite all the criticism, has now come out stronger. I am referring to the part of the electoral logistics, the vote count, citizen participation in it, the way people audit their vote, or the way I review the disputed records online at first. Likewise, the attempts to give a judicial solution were defeated by the society that, mobilized, said and demanded respect for the popular vote, the main figure of democratic rights.
But there is a subject on which I would like to elaborate a couple of ideas. In my opinion, there is a very important difference between the motivations for the null vote in the first electoral round and the second round. That is, between 25J and 20 A.
If we are serious and frank, the null vote expressed the categorical rejection of the Guatemalan electoral system, but, above all, of the way in which the political class has run the country in recent years. We already know about this. Likewise, citizens (a quarter of voters) fed up with so much corruption, with so much mismanagement in all areas of public life, saw no expectations, no option to change, even slightly, the situation in the country.
It is in this context that the Seed effect should be assessed. From 2% or 4% of voting intentions in the majority of surveys, samples or surveys, to obtaining 12% and going to the ballot, there is more than an electoral surprise. It is that against all the efforts of the corrupt pact, through the courts, through all forms of fraud, disqualification, attempts at a soft coup or with Vaseline, or black campaigns, an attempt was made since 25J , to go down, as it is read, to the Seed party and the option it represents.
With the passing of Bernardo Arévalo, Semilla’s presidential candidate, to the second round, a phenomenon concentrated in the few weeks from 25J to date has taken place. From an unknown party and candidates, who in effect gave the electoral surprise, this project has come to be seen as the vindication of all the evils that afflict Guatemalan society, to start with corruption, the abandonment of state institutions, vulgarity in national political life, and much more.
But as the candidate Arévalo himself points out, in four years it will barely be possible to lay the foundations for the fundamental changes that the country urgently needs. Although something if you can bet with enough possibilities. It is that the party and its candidate will make a policy different from the current one. They will put aside authoritarianism, the destruction of institutions, corruption, against which they are already announcing a decalogue of measures to promote. And this for society is already good news.
The reason why the Semilla party and its candidate Arévalo became the choice of the majority has been the clumsiness of the corrupt pact, which, before paralyzing society and the party, has caused a cascading effect that adds new adherents to that project every day, with each new measure against it. Both the discredit of the corrupt pact, of the bad government. Of course there is also the part that touches on the performance of the party and its candidate.
It is for these reasons that, in the second round elections, on 20A, the participation of those who voted null, will have on this occasion an option that did not exist in the 25J elections, since at that moment, the possibility that Arévalo and Seed going to the second round or another progressive option was almost impossible to visualize. Hence the surprise.
At this point, it would seem that only the most conservative expressions of society, or small groups that do not value the acquisitions that the current process already presents for Guatemalans, will insist on voting null, because some do not want a leftist, progressive, chaira option. , and for that reason they will vote null. Others because they do not look at the Arévalo option, the large open malls or the assault on the winter palace. But this I believe that in the current conditions it can be residual.
For this reason, it would seem that the most constructive thing in political terms, in the current situation of our country, taking into account the existing correlation of forces, the expectations of many, the reluctance of many others, would be to call on the voters of the void with clear reasons in the first round, so that now, 20 A, they do it, for the option that is opened by the presence of Semilla and Arévalo.
