Attacks on Russia’s ammunition depots in the Ukraine war have long-term effects

Russia’s armament is running at full speed, but apparently on credit. Now there are targeted attacks against Russia’s facilities in the Ukraine war.

Moscow – “We’ve been talking about it all the time: ‘What do we do if there’s a war here? We can’t just ramp this up overnight. We’re in a bad situation,'” says Joe Amadee. The former senior adviser to the US Army is quoted as saying by the news agency ReutersAccording to the agency, years of miscalculation by NATO and the US have led to a serious shortage of grenades in Ukraine. Vladimir Putin’s invading army is said to be in a much better position – possibly even despite the repeated bombings of Russian ammunition depots in the Russian heartland.

Ukraine says it has destroyed two ammunition depots in the south and west of Russia. The destroyed depot near the city of Tikhoretsk is one of the “three largest ammunition depots” in Moscow, the Ukrainian army said. The fire caused by falling debris ignited explosives and then spread to surrounding settlements, which is why more than 1,000 residents had to be evacuated, explained the governor of the Russian region of Krasnodar, Veniamin Kondratiev. Later, in pictures published online, clouds of smoke could be seen in the sky and wailing sirens could be heard near the city of Tikhoretsk, which has a population of 50,000.

Drone attacks on depots in the Ukraine war helpful? Probably a miscalculation in the short term

According to the Ukrainian army, another ammunition depot was hit in the village of Oktyabrsky in the western Tver region. A fire broke out there too. It is possible that the drones had targets other than the depots. Either way, the question remains as to what extent Ukraine will be able to benefit from these attacks or collateral damage. In the short term, not much, analysts suspect.

“Soldiers’ pay, ammunition, tanks, aircraft and compensation for fallen and wounded soldiers all contribute to the GDP. Put simply, the war against Ukraine is now the main engine of Russian economic growth.”

However, the Estonian intelligence chief is assuming that Russian supplies will dry up by the end of this year anyway – at least Colonel Ants Kiviselg had speculated to Estonian radio at the end of last year that “Russia still has about four million artillery shells that could be used for another year in low-intensity wars,” he said. At the same time, the delivery of another 350,000 artillery shells from North Korea proves to him that Russia plans to continue its war against Ukraine for a long time to come.

The last powder has been used? Russian soldiers fire a heavy mortar at Ukrainian positions – economists claim that Russia can afford neither a victory nor a defeat in the Ukraine war. © Sergey Bobylev/IMAGO

Alex Orlov considers this estimate to be too cautious: the measures taken by the Russian military and political leadership between 2014 and 2022 lead him to conclude that a protracted conflict was probably one of the scenarios that the Russian military and political leadership had already considered in the early 2010s, writes the author of the magazine European Security & Defence.

Is arms production over because of the Ukraine war? Putin’s regime has three advantages over the West

In parallel with the annexation of Crimea, various preparations were made in 2014 to prepare the economy for a full-scale military conflict, Orlov claims – for example, the technical re-equipment of the defense industry, political agreements with allied or neutral countries, and economic measures to increase sustainability and resilience, he writes. According to him, the Russian defense industry has three “decisive advantages” over the West.

In addition to the seemingly inexhaustible reserves, there is above all a centralized administration and the prioritization of armaments over other economic sectors. “Russia produces artillery shells about three times faster than Ukraine’s western allies and at about a quarter of the cost,” the British broadcaster Sky News in May, citing figures from Boston-based management consultancy Bain & Company.

“Comparing apples with oranges”? Only estimates possible about Russia’s supplies in the Ukraine war

Their investigation, based on publicly available information, concludes that “Russian factories are expected to produce or overhaul about 4.5 million artillery shells this year,” as Sky reported. In contrast, NATO countries, including the USA, produced around 1.3 million shells. The costs also vary considerably: According to Bain & Company, a standard NATO artillery shell with a caliber of 155 millimeters costs the equivalent of around 3,600 euros. In Russia, by comparison, the production costs for a standard artillery shell of the armed forces there with a caliber of 152 millimeters are the equivalent of around 900 euros.

The US broadcaster CNN reported in March that Russia could produce about three million artillery shells per year, or about 250,000 per month. These figures come from estimates by NATO intelligence services. However, the Russian news site tried to The Insider, to straighten out the figures. According to the report, the US management consultants had included other calibers in addition to the 152-millimeter bullets, which had led to a distortion of the figures. Insider claimed that Bain & Company had compared “apples with oranges”, as the Kyiv Post reported.

Offensives at an end? Russia needs at least four million artillery shells per year

According to calculations by the think tank Royal United Service Institutes (RUSI) Russia needs a permanent supply of 5.6 million artillery shells to maintain its current offensive momentum and force a rapid end to the Ukraine war: “To achieve its goal of making significant territorial gains in 2025, the Russian Defense Ministry has identified an industrial need to produce or acquire approximately four million 152mm and 1.6 million 122mm artillery shells in 2024,” write RUSI authors Jack Watling and Nick Reynolds.

There is hardly any sign of economic exhaustion, especially on the Russian side. Economists are also divided on this issue. In April, the opinion magazine The Conversation reported that the Russian economy is so completely dominated by the war in Ukraine that its regime can afford neither victory nor defeat.

Economic losses bearable? Putin has consistently switched to a war economy

As Renaud Foucart in Conversation published, Russia’s public spending has reached a record level, but the war is consuming around 40 percent of the state budget. Last year, total military spending accounted for ten percent of the gross domestic product (GDP). “Soldiers’ pay, ammunition, tanks, aircraft and compensation for fallen and wounded soldiers all contribute to the GDP. Put simply, the war against Ukraine is now the main engine of Russian economic growth,” writes Foucart.

In comparison, NATO countries have been arguing for years about a reliable level of defense spending by their respective partners of two percent of GDP – even Germany had been below that for a long time. The leader of the North Atlantic defense alliance is Poland with around four percent, followed by the USA.

Can the production war with Putin be won? The outcome is uncertain

Sea CNN NATO assumes that the Russian war machine is insurmountably ahead of NATO; according to a high-ranking NATO source, Russia operates its artillery factories “around the clock” in alternating twelve-hour shifts, as CNN writes. An estimated 3.5 million Russians are currently working in the arms sector, before the war there were at least a million fewer. In addition, Russia also imports ammunition: Iran delivered at least 300,000 artillery shells last year – “probably even more,” the military said, according to CNN – and North Korea delivered at least 6,700 ammunition containers containing millions of rounds.

Tanks, drones, air defense: weapons for Ukraine

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