“I think that the Ukrainians are trying to draw Russian forces away from Donbas, because that is where the main Russian attack is going. First, the Russians carried out a similar maneuver on the Ukrainian front. Being aware that Ukrainian resources are quite limited, they struck near Kharkov to draw Ukrainian forces away. The Ukrainians ‘repaid’ with a similar maneuver, being aware that this would probably force the Russians to transfer their forces,” said Daniel Szeligowski in a morning interview on RMF FM. This is how the coordinator of the Eastern Europe program at the Polish Institute of International Affairs referred to the Ukrainian attack on the Kursk region in Russia.
Attack on Kursk Oblast. Szeligowski: Ukrainians are trying to pull Russians away from Donbas Jakub Rutka / RMF FM
I read what Ukrainians write, including the military. They raise a big question mark whether it was a good decision to enter Russian territory at this point – said the guest of RMF FM.
According to him, this is the moment when both sides are preparing for future peace negotiations. I think that we are two steps away from intensifying diplomacy, that something will happen diplomatically this fall – he emphasized.
He noted that the reference point is the US elections. Everyone is looking at what Donald Trump will do if he wins the election.
Trump’s entourage is sending a fairly clear signal – they want to use all the instruments they have, in terms of political and economic pressure, to forcefully seat Ukrainians and Russians at the table for talks. And now, preparing for this eventuality, everyone must prove to Trump and the Republicans that they want these talks. Because if not, there will be some negative consequences for them. The Russians are probably less afraid of this, the Ukrainians are more afraid. They are afraid that Trump will make military aid dependent on readiness to talk to the Russians. So they are signaling this readiness, hence Zelensky’s actions – said Szeligowski.
Marek Tejchman’s guest claims that Ukraine is afraid that the international community will lose interest in the war in Ukraine. It loses interest when nothing spectacular happens. If nothing spectacular happens, then something spectacular is done so that everyone talks about it – he said.
The military telegram channel “Rybar” reports that the Ukrainian army tried to take control of the Rylsk-Sujha highway and also entered the area of the suburbs of Sudzha itself, 8 km from the border.
Sudzha is a gas hub, a few months ago Ukrainians were afraid that a Russian attack could come from there. It could have been a preemptive attack – explained the coordinator of the Eastern Europe program at the Polish Institute of International Affairs.
The expert noted that not all Ukrainian actions during this war are liked in Washington. For example, the attacks on Russian refineries were very disliked, he said.
The interviewer also asked about the mobilization in Ukraine. It looks better than I expected, but there is a lack of ammunition and people also very often end up on the front without any training. The fact that Ukraine mobilizes people is one thing, but the fact that you have to quickly plug the holes and send people to the front is another. The situation is difficult and this is visible in the Russian progress on the front. They have been moving much faster in recent weeks than before – he said.
Is a compromise with Russia possible? I don’t believe in it – Szeligowski emphasized.
In his opinion, the Russians still have enough money to wage war in Ukraine for 1.5-2 years. They have enough money. The Russian economy has already been completely switched to war tracks, he said.
He added that he does not believe that the Russians will voluntarily withdraw from Ukraine. However, in my opinion, there is a growing tendency on the Russian side to take a “pause” in order to achieve some kind of ceasefire. The Russians want to legalize what they have. We will not recognize it anyway. But the very fact that there will be a ceasefire will allow the Russians to take a breather – Szeligowski said.
