Atlético de Madrid’s Offensive Struggles: A Statistical Analysis of Expected Goals in Recent Matches

Madrid, March 5 (EFE).- Atlético de Madrid had never recorded such a high number of expected goals this season, 4.05, as in the last game against Betis, which showed its offensive moment, with half of punch, a third of the victories and twice as many defeats in the last seven matches than in the 33 previous duels this season.

Not even in the 0-7 against Rayo (1.82), nor in the 6-0 against Celtic (3.12), nor in the 5-0 against Las Palmas (2.66), nor in the 4-2 to Real Madrid (2.21), not even in the 4-3 defeat in Girona at the beginning of the year (3.45) had it reached such a height in that sense, between the penalty and the missed chances this Sunday by Álvaro Morata, Memphis Depay or Mario Hermoso, the clearest.

Atlético had options of all colors. No sense. The 1-0 was Germán Pezzella’s own goal. Álvaro Morata’s 2-0, rediscovered with that skill eight games later and already with 20 goals this season. Later, even with the score at 2-0, Hermoso missed the opportunity to make it 3-0 and had to suffer until the end, clinging to an extraordinary save by Jan Oblak on a shot from Guido Rodríguez, in a very weak second half for the red and whites.

Because Atlético’s present has a forcefulness problem. Not only in defense, but in attack. While behind there is a similar average in the last seven games (1.28 goals against) as in the previous 33 (1.18), at the top it has fallen with visibility: 2.21 goals before and 1.28 now.

Thanks to its effectiveness in attack, the team had so far endured its defensive vulnerability, with only 30 percent of matches with its own goal to zero (12 of 40 games), until the decline has exposed it in the recent sequence of seven clashes, in which they failed to score against the opponent’s goal in four of them.

He did not score a goal in any of his two duels with a defeat in the Copa del Rey semifinals against Athletic Club (0-1 and 3-0). Neither against Sevilla (1-0), in Laliga EA Sports, nor against Inter (1-0), in the first leg of the Champions League round of 16. Yes in the 2-2 draw with Almería and in the wins against Las Palmas (5-0) and Betis (2-1).

In all that stretch he has proposed 106 shots to score nine goals, one of them his rival’s own goal. His success rate is one goal for every eleven shots. Before him, in his previous 33 games, he averaged a goal every 5 shots, with 73 goals through 394 attempts, according to data from the advanced statistics platform ‘Be Soccer Pro’.

Transferred to its results, Atlético averages 0.22 wins (two games won) in its last seven games, when in the previous 33 it was 0.66 (22 wins); 0.22 draws, when before it was 0.15, and, above all, now it registers 0.44 defeats when in the entire first section it was 0.18. A substantial difference… At the decisive moment of the course.

Iñaki Dufour

2024-03-05 11:03:06
#punch #defeats #victories