After nearly three weeks of calm, the Atlantic has been hit with a series of tropical disturbances, causing concern among experts and the public. On Friday, easterly waves in the Atlantic showed varying degrees of maturity, with some having a higher chance of forming into tropical storms.
The disturbance with the highest chance of development is located west of the Cabo Verde islands and is unlikely to hit any land mass. Its track is pointing towards the wide open Atlantic. Another tropical wave, located between Africa and the Antilles, also has a medium chance of development. It is expected to track west-northwest, potentially missing the Caribbean islands and veering off into the northern Atlantic.
The National Hurricane Center has flagged a third disturbance about 600 miles east of the Windward Islands. On Friday morning, it only had a slight chance of forming into a tropical depression or storm. However, regardless of development, this wave is expected to produce some squalls across the West Indies over the weekend and early next week.
In addition to these disturbances, there is a cluster of showers and thunderstorms in the eastern Bahamas linked to a low-pressure system in the upper atmosphere. This system is moving westward, and there is a chance that a tropical low-pressure center or storm could form next week. From a Florida perspective, this system could bring much-needed rain over the weekend. However, the development of a closed-off circulation at the surface is not expected until the disturbance has passed the peninsula and moved west into the central Gulf of Mexico.
If the system continues to develop, it is likely to move towards the Texas coast, where rain is desperately needed due to an ongoing extreme to exceptional drought. The sudden increase in tropical disturbances has sparked concerns on social media, especially considering experts’ predictions of a hyperactive second half of the hurricane season.
The Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico continue to have much hotter than normal water temperatures, which can fuel tropical storms. However, over the next five days, there is expected to be an inordinate amount of wind shear in the Atlantic. Stronger westerly winds aloft, commonly seen during El Niño events, can shear the head off of fledgling storms. This year’s El Niño is in full swing and expected to last beyond the hurricane season.
While there has been concern that the typical El Niño patterns, including wind shear, may not consistently appear over the Atlantic in the coming months, the forecast shows strong wind shear for the next five days. This is likely to limit the development of the four systems currently being tracked in the Atlantic basin.
Overall, the sudden increase in tropical disturbances and the presence of warm waters in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico are reasons for concern. The public is advised to stay updated on the latest weather forecasts and preparedness measures as the hurricane season progresses.
What are the main factors that contribute to the potential increase in tropical storm activity in the Atlantic, as indicated by the series of disturbances
Tropical disturbance. While currently disorganized, there is a small chance of development in this area. Regardless of its development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds can be expected in the Bahamas and potentially impacting parts of Florida in the coming days.
Overall, these series of disturbances in the Atlantic have caught the attention of experts and the public, as they signal a potential increase in tropical storm activity. With hurricane season still ongoing, it is important for residents in coastal areas to stay informed and prepared for any potential impacts.
It’s interesting to see how external factors like wind shear can impact the development of tropical disturbances.