Hurricane season has suddenly come alive in the Atlantic Ocean after several weeks of little to no tropical activity. The National Hurricane Center is currently tracking five tropical systems, two of which are likely to impact land areas. However, none of these systems are expected to be as significant as Tropical Storm Hilary in the Pacific.
Out of the five systems being tracked, two are currently tropical storms and one is a remnant tropical storm. Just eight days ago, the Hurricane Center had no disturbances to monitor in the Atlantic.
The only immediate threat to the U.S. mainland is an area of low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico. This system could bring tropical storm conditions, including beneficial rain but also flooding, to South Texas between late Monday and Wednesday. A tropical storm warning has been issued for South Texas south of Port O’Connor, while a tropical storm watch is in effect from Port O’Connor north to Sargent.
The main impact in South Texas is expected to be heavy rain, with 2 to 3 inches of rain predicted for locations including Corpus Christi, Laredo, and Brownsville on Tuesday and Wednesday. Locally higher amounts of 5 to 7 inches are also possible. The National Weather Service has warned of potential flooding, isolated tornadoes, a high risk of rip currents, large swells, and rough surf.
A storm surge of 1 to 3 feet could flood normally dry areas along the mouth of the Rio Grande to Sargent, including Baffin Bay, Corpus Christi Bay, and Matagorda Bay. However, winds are not a major concern, with the chance of tropical-storm-force winds of 39 mph or greater only 10 to 20 percent along the South Texas coast.
The rain will be beneficial to areas of South Texas that are currently experiencing moderate to severe drought, according to the latest federal drought monitor. However, the more significant amounts of rain may not reach areas further north, including San Antonio, Austin, Killeen, and coastal areas northwest of Corpus Christi, which are experiencing even worse levels of drought.
Tropical Storm Franklin, on the other hand, is already affecting Puerto Rico and is expected to make landfall on Hispaniola, the island that comprises the Dominican Republic and Haiti. The storm could become a hurricane south of Bermuda by the weekend, although its track is uncertain after Wednesday. Franklin brought an inch or more of rain to many locations in Puerto Rico on Sunday, and portions of southern Puerto Rico could see up to 4 inches of rain through Wednesday. Flooding and damaging winds are possible, along with a moderate to high risk of rip currents.
In addition to these two systems, the Hurricane Center is also tracking three other tropical systems in the open ocean, none of which are likely to impact land.
The recent increase in tropical activity in the Atlantic is running ahead of schedule. Typically, tropical activity starts to pick up in late August and peaks in September. Franklin, the seventh named storm of the season, formed about three weeks before the average date of development for the seventh named storm.
This uptick in activity is being fueled in part by record-warm waters in the North Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico. The weekly average sea surface temperature in these areas exceeded 87 degrees for the first time on record. While most hurricane experts initially tempered their forecasts for this season due to developing El Niño conditions, which tend to limit storm development in the Atlantic, the latest consensus is that the persistence of unusually warm ocean waters may counteract El Niño, leading to an above-average number of storms.
What potential impacts are expected in South Texas due to the low-pressure area in the Gulf of Mexico
The Atlantic Ocean’s hurricane season is suddenly showing signs of activity after weeks of quiet. The National Hurricane Center is tracking five tropical systems, two of which are likely to affect land areas. However, these systems are not expected to be as significant as Tropical Storm Hilary in the Pacific.
Out of the five systems being monitored, two are currently tropical storms and one is a remnant tropical storm. Just eight days ago, the Hurricane Center had nothing to monitor in the Atlantic.
The only immediate threat to the US mainland is a low-pressure area in the Gulf of Mexico. This system could bring tropical storm conditions, including beneficial rainfall and the risk of flooding, to South Texas from late Monday to Wednesday. South Texas south of Port O’Connor has been issued a tropical storm warning, while a tropical storm watch is in effect from Port O’Connor north to Sargent.
The main impact in South Texas is expected to be heavy rainfall. Locations such as Corpus Christi, Laredo, and Brownsville are predicted to receive 2 to 3 inches of rain on Tuesday and Wednesday, with locally higher amounts of 5 to 7 inches possible. The National Weather Service has warned about potential flooding, isolated tornadoes, a high risk of rip currents, large swells, and rough surf.
Furthermore, a storm surge of 1 to 3 feet could flood normally dry areas along the Rio Grande’s mouth to Sargent, which includes Baffin Bay, Corpus Christi Bay, and Matagorda Bay. However, winds do not pose a major concern, with the chance of tropical-storm-force winds of 39 mph or greater along the South Texas coast being only 10 to 20 percent.
The rainfall is expected to benefit areas of South Texas currently facing moderate dry conditions.
Wow, things are really heating up in the Atlantic! Stay safe everyone.
Jacob: This is why I always make sure to be prepared during hurricane season. It’s better to be safe than sorry.
I’m keeping a close eye on the storms forming in the Atlantic. It’s important to stay informed and be prepared for any potential impacts.