Table of Contents
- 0.1 Why did Biden change course?
- 0.2 What are ATACMS missiles and what is their range?
- 0.3 Will Kyiv gain the upper hand?
- 0.4 Will Biden’s approval lead to an escalation of the war?
- 0.5 How will Trump react?
- 1 What economic implications could arise for the Czech Republic as a result of increased military support for Ukraine from the United States?
US President Joe Biden has given Ukraine the go-ahead to use US-supplied long-range missiles to strike targets in Russia. Washington has long resisted the decision due to fears that it would escalate the war in Ukraine. Biden made the major U-turn two months before handing over power to his successor, Donald Trump. The re-election of the Republican raised concerns about the future of American support for Kyiv. What are the ATACMS missiles, whose deployment in combat can Trump reverse again, and how can they affect the course of the conflict?
Ukraine has been using American ATACMS missiles against Russian targets on occupied Ukrainian territory for more than a year. However, the United States has not yet authorized their use inside Russia. The New York Times and the Reuters and AP agencies wrote on Sunday, citing US officials, that Biden had changed his mind. The Axios server then claims that the US allowed Ukraine to use American missiles to attack Russia only in the Kursk region.
Why did Biden change course?
Ukraine has long tried to convince the Americans to allow the use of ATACMS missiles against targets in Russia. The turnaround is said to be a response to the recent deployment of North Korean troops in support of Moscow in Russia’s border region of Kursk, where the Ukrainian army made a surprise incursion in August and controls several hundred square kilometers there.
The Russian army is about to start in the Kursk region a large-scale counterattack using roughly 50,000 soldiersincluding North Korean troops, with the goal of recapturing lost territory. The Ukrainians could use ATACMS missiles to hit Russian and North Korean positions, key military equipment, logistics hubs, ammunition depots and supply lines deep inside Russia. It is not clear how many missiles the Ukrainians have. Last year, Biden agreed to the delivery of several hundred missiles for use in Russian-controlled Ukrainian territory, including Crimea.
Trump’s return to the White House raises concerns about the future of US support for Ukraine, and Biden is apparently willing to do whatever he can to help Kiev in the short time he has left in office. Strengthening Ukraine’s military capabilities could give Kyiv leverage in any peace negotiations that may await it.
What are ATACMS missiles and what is their range?
ATACMS are often referred to as “long-range missiles”, but that is a subjective term. They can travel deeper into Russia than any other Ukrainian missile, but will not reach as far as cruise missiles or intercontinental ballistic missiles.
ATACMS missiles were developed in the 1980s to destroy high-value Soviet targets deep behind enemy lines. They were designed as a rare guided weapon at a time when the United States relied primarily on unguided bombs and unguided munitions.
Will Kyiv gain the upper hand?
Ukraine will now be able to hit targets inside Russia. He is expected to strike first in the Kursk regionwhere Ukrainian forces hold more than 1,000 square kilometers. Kyiv may use ATACMS to defend against a Russian counteroffensive, but the missiles are unlikely to turn the tide of the war. Russian military equipment, such as fighter jets, have already been moved to airfields deeper inside Russia in anticipation of the decision. But the weapons may give Ukraine some leverage at a time when Russian troops are gaining ground in the east of the country and Ukrainian morale is falling.
“I don’t think it will be decisive,” a Western diplomat in Kiev told the BBC on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter. But the symbolic decision, he says, can raise the stakes on the battlefield, demonstrate military support for Ukraine and increase war costs for Russia. The question remains whether Ukraine will receive additional missiles from the United States. US approval may also trigger a ripple effect: potentially allowing Britain and France to grant Ukraine permission to use Storm Shadow missiles inside Russia. The Storm Shadow is a Franco-British long-range missile with similar capabilities to the US ATACMS.
Will Biden’s approval lead to an escalation of the war?
Biden has long refused to allow Ukraine to strike Russia with long-range missiles, fearing an escalation of the conflict. “We are trying to avoid World War III,” he has said in the past. Some Pentagon officials also opposed providing the missiles to the Ukrainians because of limited supplies.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned against allowing Western weapons to be used to strike targets inside Russia, saying Moscow would see it as “direct participation” by NATO countries in the war in Ukraine. “It would significantly change the very essence, the nature of the conflict. It would mean that NATO countries, the US and European states are at war with Russia,” Putin said in September. But Russia has previously set “red lines” and some of them, including the provision of modern battle tanks and fighter jets to Ukraine, have since been crossed without provoking outright war between Russia and NATO.
Zelenskyy says this type of weaponry is key to his country’s ability to launch a wider counteroffensive, and insists he has no plans to target Russian cities or civilians.
How will Trump react?
Biden announced the change of course just two months before Trump returned to the White House. The Republican has long signaled his intention to end the war in Ukraine quickly, without specifying how he intends to do so. Once in office, he could reverse Biden’s permission to use ATACMS missiles on Russian territory. Trump has not yet commented on the latest development, some of his closest allies have already criticized the move. “It seems the military-industrial complex wants to make sure they start World War III before my father has a chance to make peace and save lives,” his son Donald Trump Jr. wrote.
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Many of Trump’s top officials, such as Vice President-elect JD Vance, say the U.S. should not provide any additional military aid to Ukraine. But other members of the future Trump administration take a different view. National Security Adviser Michael Waltz says the US could speed up arms shipments to Ukraine to force Russia to negotiate. It is not clear which way the president-elect will take. However, many in Ukraine fear that arms shipments, including ATACMS systems, will be cut off.
What economic implications could arise for the Czech Republic as a result of increased military support for Ukraine from the United States?
INTERVIEWER: Good evening, ladies and gentlemen. We are excited to have with us today Mr. Alexander Kotenko, a renowned military analyst, and Ms. Tereza Zacharová, Vice-Governor of the Czech National Bank, to discuss the recent decision by US President Joe Biden to allow Ukraine to use American-made long-range ATACMS missiles to strike targets inside Russia.
INTERVIEWER: Mr. Kotenko, how significant is this development in the context of the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine?
ALEXANDER KOTENKO: This is a very significant decision. The ATACMS missiles give Ukraine the ability to strike deep into Russian territory, which was previously off-limits due to US concerns about escalating the war. This move could potentially shift the balance of power on the ground, as Ukraine can now target key logistical hubs, ammunition depots, and supply lines behind enemy lines. However, it remains to be seen how effective this will be in denting Russia’s war machine.
INTERVIEWER: Do you think that the use of these missiles could lead to a direct confrontation between Russia and NATO?
ALEXANDER KOTENKO: While President Putin has warned about such consequences, I believe that it is unlikely at this stage. The ATACMS missiles are not as powerful as intercontinental ballistic missiles and are designed to target specific high-value targets. NATO countries have been careful not to directly involve themselves in the conflict. However, the deployment of these missiles does cross a threshold and raises tensions between Russia and the West.
INTERVIEWER: What impact might this have on negotiations for a potential peace agreement in Ukraine?
ALEXANDER KOTENKO: The use of these missiles could embolden Ukraine and potentially give them some leverage in negotiations with Russia. However, it is important to remember that Ukraine still faces significant challenges on the battlefield, and the war is far from over. The deployment of ATACMS missiles alone will not guarantee a swift victory for Ukraine or force Russia to the negotiating table.
INTERVIEWER: Ms. Zacharová, how do you think this decision will affect the Czech Republic?
