Spain faces the first Christmas normalized by the outbreak of the covid, with a stable incidence and a lower hospital impact thanks to the fact that immunity resists against serious infections, according to experts, who insist on the fourth dose for the most vulnerable because the holidays will favor more contagion.
Just over a year ago (early December), after months of relative normality, e even with the mandatory use of masks, Neither Spain nor the rest of the world expected that the recent discovery of omicrons in a South African laboratory in Johannesburg would once again trigger global panic.
Spain then found itself with a relatively low level of incidence –less than 200 cases per 100,000 inhabitants– and a hospitable panorama which made it difficult to predict what would happen in the following weeks and which worsened after the Christmas celebrations.
A situation that according to experts should not be forgotten, nor should the focus on Sars Cov2 be withdrawn, because the virus continues to evolve with new lines and underlines and certainly there are only hypotheses about its future.
LIVING WITH THE VIRUS
We will continue to live with the virus, which is why they recommend continuing to carry out diagnostic tests and indicate that over time we lose vaccine or hybrid protection, a problem that mainly affects older and vulnerable groups, even if the rest of the population maintains the shield against a serious covid.
This was reported by the professionals consulted, including the president of the Spanish Society of Epidemiology (SEE), Óscar Zurriaga, who explained that the level of transmission maintains “a certain stability”, even if we cannot forget that there are 15 to 20 daily deaths related to Covid-19, a figure he considers “unsustainable”: “We can’t give up.”
Although the situation is “completely different from that of previous years”, when “holiday expectations were bad”, he believes that we should not let our guard down, especially as regards vaccination with the second dose. which was opened last week to groups under 60 if they decide to request it.
So far, according to the Ministry of Health, only 53% of citizens over 60 have used the second omicron-adapted booster serum; even if the figure is much lower in sixty-year-olds (38.7%), while it slightly exceeds 71% in over-80 year olds.
Zurriaga has predicted that mobility and social interaction at parties will inevitably lead to more infections of covid-19, a disease that will coexist with other respiratory infections such as the flu, which have made a strong comeback after mask removal and other protections protective measures.
WILL COVID COME BACK WITH MORE STRENGTH?
“We do not know the moment when the covid-19 will return with more force” and it can do it “in an important way”, predicts the president of the Spanish Vaccination Association (EAV), Jaime Pérez, while urging citizens with a higher level of vulnerability to vaccination with the fourth dose. He also finds it “unacceptable” that the daily death figures do not fall below 15 or 20.
Marcos López Hoyospresident of the Spanish Society of Immunology (SEI), indicated “a sustained level of incidence” and hospital pressure in “relative tranquility” given that the population is “more protected” from the vaccine and subsequent exposure to the virus from 2020 .
He does not believe that the advance of the new omicron subvariant of BQ.1 and its lineages “causes increased severity” of cases, despite early studies showing greater escape to the immune response, but not to the cellular one, which is what prevents serious pictures.
OMICRON: LESS GRAVITY BUT STILL AFFECT THE VULNERABLE
Since March, when the first wave of omicrons began to decline (the sixth of the entire pandemic), more than 16,400 covid-19-related deaths have been recorded to date, an average of more than 1,800 deaths per month, although data indicate an overall reduction in the severity of cases.
So far, progress in recent weeks in Spain’s lineages of the BQ.1 it did not produce a significant health impact unlike the summer wave, when the irruption of BA.4 and BA.5, replacing the first omicron variants, complicated the situation once again.
Furthermore, now that the Autonomous Communities distinguish between patients hospitalized “with and for” covid-19, it is known that just over 45% are due to health problems related to the infection, with the rest being detected with the virus although the la cause of hospitalization is another.
