Two old acquaintances will meet in Beijing on Friday: Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Chinese President Xi Jinping. For the left-wing Lula, it is a gauntlet next to the powerful Xi, who was still visiting Moscow in March.
After pneumonia prevented Lula from traveling to China at the end of March, the Brazilian president still flew to the Asian country this week. He will meet Xi in Beijing on Friday. In addition to economic interests, world politics is high on the agenda of the four-day visit. The Brazilian and Chinese presidents envision a ‘multipolar’ world, in which the US is only one of several superpowers. Like Xi, Lula hopes to play the role of mediator in Russia’s war against Ukraine.
No other trip illustrates Lula’s diplomatic ambitions as clearly as this trip to Beijing. The Brazilian president wants to re-establish himself internationally as ‘the first of the last’, says Brazilian political scientist Camilla Geraldello of the University of São Paulo. “As a leader of developing countries.” His jerky right-wing predecessor Jair Bolsonaro had hardly any foreign friends left after four years. Lula returns as “a pragmatist who sits down with everyone,” according to Geraldello.
Climate savior
“Brazil is back,” said Lula when he visited the climate summit in Egypt at the end of last year after his election win. But the world has changed dramatically since his last presidency between 2003 and 2011. Simply picking up where he left off is impossible, says researcher Guilherme Casarões of Brazil’s Center for International Relations. “Today’s world is more hostile and complex.”
The last time Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (77) and Xi Jinping (69) met, the Brazilian was at the peak of his power. It was early 2009, Lula was halfway through his second term, the Brazilian economy was (still) running smoothly and more than 80 percent of the population supported his government. Xi’s advance had yet to begin. He visited Brazil as Vice President.
Brazil and China found each other with Russia and India in the proud BRIC association of emerging economies (later, with South Africa, BRICS). Vladimir Putin was already in the Kremlin. While Xi and Putin have only become more powerful since then, Lula fell from his pedestal in his own country. After his recent comeback, he must again relate internationally to superpowers that are diametrically opposed to each other.
Everyone’s friend
The experienced politician has an advantage: compromise is one of his greatest qualities. Just as he entered into alliances with all political colors in his own country, he is opportunistically active abroad. Casarões: “Brazil has no problem entering into relations with authoritarian states.” Lula hopes to balance between west and east: as a democracy savior in the US, as a climate hero in Europe, a close trading partner in China and a dove of peace in Russia and Ukraine.
He often wears many hats at the same time. For example, green energy is high on the agenda of the Chinese visit, a theme that both countries can make good use of (despite extensive plans to extract new reserves of fossil fuels). And in China, Lula wants to re-establish herself as a neutral conflict mediator in the Ukraine war in an attempt to unite more non-Western countries behind a peace initiative.
Such a balancing act will be a lot more difficult in 2023, says political scientist Casarões. “At the time, Brazil and China were emerging economies in a world dominated by the US. Now China is a superpower.” At the end of Lula’s first presidency, China equaled the US as Brazil’s trading partner. The Sino-Brazilian trade is now twice as large as that between Brazil and the US. Last year, the countries did business for a record amount of 140 billion euros.
Soy, iron ore and oil
“Brazil threatens to become even more dependent on China,” warns the researcher. The South American country exports huge amounts of soy, iron ore and oil to China. China ships consumer goods to Brazil (a lot of electronics) and invests in Brazilian infrastructure, telecommunications, the car industry, the energy sector, agriculture and mining and oil extraction.
As a dove of peace, the scientist gives Lula little chance. “The world is not interested in another country meddling in this war.” Political scientist Geraldello also sees ‘Ukraine’ as the riskiest item on the agenda. “A strong alliance between China and Russia could be a problem for Brazil’s relationship with the US and Europe.” Lula already raised Western eyebrows at election time when he blamed the US and the EU for the Russian invasion. He has not repeated that statement since taking office.
