If the decline in the number of failures continues, in the first quarter, other indicators are more worrying, according to Altares.
Will the anesthesia caused by the infusion of public aid soon come to an end? In its quarterly report on business failures published on Wednesday, the Altares firm presents a mixed picture of the situation, including several points of concern.
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First, there are still far fewer failures than normal, thanks to state aid. In the first quarter, 7,406 insolvency proceedings were registered, a decrease of 32.1% compared to the same period last year. Level “remains exceptionally low», Notes the cabinet. By way of comparison, 16,037 failures were noted in the first quarter of 2017, and 14,146 over the first three months of 2019.
The decline is marked in several sectors, including construction, commerce, business services, transport and catering. It is also notable in all regions, and more particularly in Corsica and Burgundy Franche-Comté, where it exceeds 50%.
«Still on a public infusion, companies are keeping», Summarizes the cabinet. Altares’ director of studies, Thierry Millon, sees this as proof that “the strategy of support to the real economy deployed by the State has proved to be effective, given the low level of insolvencies of registered companies».
In a study published on Wednesday for March, the Banque de France also notes a drop in the number of business failures. “This decline does not indicate a reduction in the number of companies in difficulty“, She nuances: since the end of October and the second confinement, the”relatively low number of insolvencies due to government measures to support companies in difficulty», Recalls the institution, not surprisingly.
Several points of concern
However, according to Altares, this first positive finding should not hide alarming elements. First, if it is true that the number of failures remains limited, they accelerate and multiply, March representing a “real inflection point» : «over the first two weeks of March, business failures fell sharply (-48%), but over the following two they exploded by 155% compared to the same period of 2020”, When normal activity had been limited by the first confinement. The monthly drop therefore reaches -35% in January, -45% in February and -13% in March.
In addition, “the rate of direct liquidations is accelerating at the start of the year“, Notes the study: now, nearly 80% of judgments lead to the liquidation of the company,”a level never seen in twenty yearsAccording to Altares. Companies in difficulty are therefore much less likely to survive. VSEs with less than three employees are particularly affected, concentrating “three quarters of the procedures“. 80% of them are immediately placed in compulsory liquidation, against 77% of those with 3 to 5 employees opening proceedings.
Certain activities are also subject to additional tensions and see an increase in the number of procedures. This is particularly the case for real estate, optics, pharmacy, public relations and communication consulting and sea fishing. On the territory side, in Guyana and Guadeloupe, the number of procedures has also increased. , contrary to other regions.
A challenge for the second semester
The question of the weeks and months to come is therefore essential: it is there, during the recovery, that the survival or not of ailing companies will play out, warns the cabinet. The case of activities that have contracted loans and EMPs should be carefully scrutinized, as well as that of “zombies, those structures that survive on state support and low interest rates“: Altares counts 63,000 in France, which risk disappearing when the aid tap is cut.
A good control of the file as a whole will be required, to avoid domino effects, leading to cascading bankruptcies, supports the document. Cited by Les Échos, Altares plans, in 2021, “between 40,000 and 45,000 failures“, Still less than the 52,000 annual before the crisis, in 2019.
For its part, the executive ensures that aid to companies in difficulty will be maintained as long as the health crisis lasts, before a gradual disconnection, as activity resumes. In addition, Bercy has already opened the door to longer-term support for certain sectors, such as aeronautics, which will take longer to return to normal.
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