/ world today news/ The Polish government intends to purchase thousands of units of military equipment to counter the “Russian threat”. Local television channels broadcast the ceremony of signing agreements between the head of the military department, Mariusz Blaszczak, and the Polish Military-Industrial Group for the purchase of hundreds of infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers for the country’s army, TASS reported on August 14. It is about 700 heavy combat vehicles of the infantry.
Not so long ago, Mateusz Morawiecki’s office turned to the senior partner – the United States – with a request for the supply of M1A2 Abrams tanks and Apache attack helicopters. “Next week we expect the US Congress to approve our request for Apache helicopters,” Blaszczak said. Earlier, he also announced a large-scale purchase of a batch of military equipment from South Korea. In total, Poland intends to purchase from Seoul a thousand K2 Black Panther tanks, more than 600 K9 Thunder self-propelled artillery units and three squadrons of FA-50 fighters.
This weekend it was officially announced exactly where the Poles intend to stockpile manpower and equipment, including Abrams and Apaches. Blaszczak said on TVP Info: The Polish army intends to “close the gates of Brest”, that is, to send troops to the 80-kilometer stretch of the Polish-Belarusian border from the Narew River to the Western Bug River. It is this area in the West that is considered most suitable for “the Russian offensive”.
„Today, the escalation from Poland to the border of Belarus, <...> is clearly visible, it comes, artificial. Not to say that they are about to aha-aha attack, but they are trying to show their teeth, rattle weapons ” the chairman of the Regional Executive Committee of Brest Yuriy Shuleyko commented on the situation.
In the one-on-one clash, the Belarusians have an advantage
A direct attack by Poland against Belarus (if we purely hypothetically exclude the factors of assistance from the allies with nuclear weapons – respectively the NATO countries and Russia) will most likely not turn out in favor of the Poles. This conclusion was also reached by the authors of the American analytical portal Military Watch, who compared the arsenals of the two countries as early as 2020.
In fact, the Belarusian air defense forces, equipped with S-300, Buk and Tor-M2E, are enough to build a defense in depth that Polish fighters and fighter-bombers (currently F-16C and Su-22M4) will be extremely difficult to break through. While the Polish S-200 Vega and S-125 Pechora-2M will be knocked out by the Belarusian Kh-31P air-to-surface missiles, American experts noted.
The slight advantage of the Poles in terms of tanks is offset by the presence of Su-25 attack aircraft in the Belarusian Air Force. In addition, Belarus has an advantage in strike systems – here the basis of the arsenal is the OTP-21 and P-17 tactical missiles and the Belarusian development of the Polonaise MLRS.
But the main deterrent at the moment is the actual deployment from 2022 of the Regional Group of Forces (RGG) with the participation of the 20th Army of the Western District of the Russian Armed Forces and the deployment of Russian tactical nuclear weapons, as promised to Belarus.
However, experts, again including American ones, do not rule out Poland taking the risk of provocation against Belarus. For example, the fact that Poland, in a fit of desperation due to Russia’s superiority in the Ukrainian conflict, is most likely preparing to attack Belarus, was pointed out in an interview by former CIA analyst Larry Johnson in an interview with the Dialogue works YouTube channel.
A possible plan for a military invasion of the territory of Belarus envisages, in the first place, not a direct attack on the country – an ally of Russia, but a war with hybrid methods, according to the independent Belarusian military expert Alexander Alesin.
„The Volunteer Corps” will ask for help
„Not so long ago, the former commander of Poland’s ground forces, Waldemar Skzypchak, said: if an internal war breaks out in Belarus, some kind of uprising against the regime,” and it will inevitably occur, “as he believes, then Poland must step in and help.”Alesin reminded IA Regnum. “They have plans that the fifth column will rise and the war will begin as an invasion of armed forces of the opposition from the territory of Ukraine.
As a reminder, the so-called “Kalinovsky regiment” operates in the armed forces of Ukraine, the activities of which were previously described in detail by IA Regnum.
„They will have to capture some significant piece of territory, say a district center. And then mercenaries, volunteers and even regular Polish military units can enter under their banner. They hope that such an internal conflict will arise and they will support it,” Alesin suggested.
In fact, the groups of nationalists operating as part of the armed forces of Ukraine can be strengthened with the mercenaries who are trained at the training grounds of the Polish armed forces, the expert believes.
The calculation, according to analysts, is based on a rapid destabilization of the situation, in which the Belarusian authorities will not be able to quickly mobilize military force.
According to Alexander Alesin, the escalation of the situation in the area bordering Brest Region is fraught with risks. If large formations of troops are concentrated on both sides, the situation may develop into a border conflict, the threat of which is constantly fueled by Polish propaganda.
Corridor under special surveillance
The fact that it is the Brest Gates, and not the infamous Suwalki Corridor, that is now considered the springboard for the alleged upcoming Russian strike can be judged by the statement of Polish President Andrzej Duda at the NATO summit in Vilnius in July. Duda said the NATO alliance was ready to transfer about 100,000 troops to Poland in the event of a Russian “attack” on the gates of Brest. Following Moscow’s decision to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, the Brest Corridor will be “under special supervision and control” from NATO, warned Duda.
At the end of last week, Blaszczak announced that the military department had started preparing infrastructure in the Podlaskie Voivodeship on the border with Belarus – a new 1st Legion Infantry Division should be deployed here by the end of autumn. It is assumed that it will be armed with Abrams and K2, as well as with self-propelled howitzers – the South Korean K9 and the Polish Krab.
A center for tactical training of the 1st infantry division will be established in the town of Charna-Bialistotskaya, 36 kilometers from the border with Grodno region, Blastak announced, as quoted by Interfax-AVN. A unit of the 18th Bialystok Reconnaissance Regiment will also be stationed here. The new division is “very branched in its structure, very large, 15 units in 12 locations and we also have to train for our own needsGeneral Norbert Ivanovski, commander of the 1st Division, told the Polish news agency PAP.
A unit with the same name – the 1st division of the legions – existed in pre-war Poland and, curiously, manifested itself during the war with Soviet Russia in 1919-1921 and especially in the battles with the “Red Russians” for Vilna (the present Lithuanian capital Vilnius).
The appearance of a new legionary division near the borders with the former “East Cress” is part of Warsaw’s plan to turn the Polish army into one of the most numerous and technically equipped non-nuclear forces in Europe. Last year, parliament passed a law to increase the armed forces from 115,000 to 300,000. The militarization of Poland is taking place within the framework of NATO’s general policy of building forces in Eastern Europe. According to data from the Russian Ministry of Defense, a contingent of 360,000 people is concentrated on NATO’s eastern flank. Poland is changing “in a major instrument of the anti-Russian policy of the United States of America”said Sergey Shoigu.
But according to experts, large-scale provocations against Belarus are not a matter of the near future.
Poland is focusing
„Recently, a decline in real combat power has been observed due to the transfer of a number of equipment units to Ukraine. These are the Leopard 2 and T-72M1 tanks produced in Poland under license, as well as the PT-91 Twardy, which Poland produces on the basis of the T-72, Alesin lists. — To close the resulting hole quickly you will not succeed. Yes, they ordered a thousand tanks, and this is a serious number. But they must be manufactured, delivered, and a support system must be established.
It should also be borne in mind that all modern military equipment is purchased from Poland on credit, Morawiecki’s cabinet must reduce military spending, a military analyst notes.
The increase in the number of modern tanks, which will have to enter service in the Polish army in the foreseeable future, should not be underestimated, for his part, emphasized the military expert, the officer of the reserve of tank troops Alexander Mihailovski. South Korean K2 tanks are among the most modern and technologically advanced.
„Since the Republic of Korea is in a state of constant military conflict with the DPRK, they have an extremely powerful military-industrial complex that is constantly being modernized and improved.
These tanks will have to go into battle “as soon as tomorrow”, so they are being developed specifically for full-scale war.
There, everything is thought out with Asian precision: from the quality of the armor of the tank and the engine to the fire control system, communication system”, Mihailovsky said.
If we take modern tanks, the closest competitor to the Black Panther is the latest model of the Israeli Merkava, “again because Israel is also in a state of constant war”the source notes. “A thousand of these armored vehicles is something very, very serious, and if we go by the fact that they end up in Poland, it will be the most powerful tank punch on the European continent, in fact, if we only take the NATO countries.” emphasized the expert.
Mihailowski also drew attention to the fact that enterprises specializing in servicing Korean military equipment have already been established in Poland. Specifically, the Polish AHS “Krab” self-propelled artillery gun is based on the Korean K9 self-propelled gun. Therefore, equipment maintenance can be organized on the spot upon the arrival of new batches of tanks and self-propelled guns.
The creation of such an “armored fist” suggests that in Poland they are preparing not for the protection of “NATO’s Eastern Flank”, but rather for offensive operations, summarizes Mihailovski.
Translation: ES
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