Stock Dimension – Research Department of Finansia Syrus Securities stated that ASW announced its 2024 business plan under caution, targeting presales to expand 8% yy at 18 billion baht and transfer amounts at 8.7 billion baht through the plan. Launching 12 new projects with a total value of 26 billion baht (-14% yy) due to some being postponed to open earlier in Q4/23, consisting of 1) 6 ASW condos worth 11 billion baht, mainly still under the KAVE brand, which is The company’s strengths are 3 locations near universities and starting to penetrate near schools like Bodindecha.
Also expanding in tourist cities such as Jomtien-Pattaya under the new brand Aquarous 2) 3 TITLE condos in Phuket worth 11 billion baht, covering potential locations in Bang Tao, Nai Yang and Rawai 3) 3 low-rise condos Valued at 4.1 billion baht, the highlight is CHANN The Riverside, a Boutique detached house next to the Tha Chin River. Q4/2023 profits are expected to grow qq and yy, supported by newly completed condos.
We estimate Q4/2023 net profit at 435 million baht (+158% qq, +1% yy). Excluding share premium from signing new JV contracts of around 60 million baht, normal profit is expected at 375 million baht (+328% qq, +36% yy) driven by 3 newly completed condos, consisting of Kave Colony and JV projects such as Atmoz Oasis Onnut and Atmoz Flow Minburi, supporting transfers expected to be +29% qq, +12% yy at 2 billion baht and JV’s share turned into a profit of 65 million baht
Meanwhile, real estate gross profit margin is expected to recover to 41% from 37.6% in Q3/66 from the recognition of new projects with good margins, resulting in net profit at the end of 2023 at 1 billion. baht (-7% yy) and normal profit of 793 million baht (+15%yy)
Adjusted 2024 forecast down 4%, but still able to grow +7% yy.
We cut our 2024 net profit forecast by 4% to 1.1 billion baht, but still grew 7%, reflecting the postponement of the recognition of the TITLE project by The Title Legendary Bangtao starting Q1/68 from Q4/67.
In this regard, our transfer amount assumption is 8.1 billion baht, lower than the company’s target of 7% with a cautious view of the company’s main portfolio of approximately 40-50% being below 3 million baht, which is a group with fragile purchasing power and rejection rate. From the high bank, the appropriate price has been adjusted to 9.50 baht, still recommending buying. Expected dividend yield of 6.3%
We adjusted the appropriate price down to 9.50 baht (based on the original PER 8x), still recommending a buy. The stock price has an upside of 10%, plus a profit trend in Q4/66 and 2024 growing by expanding the portfolio in Phuket with TITLE, which received positive benefits from Tourism is a supporting part. Expected dividend for 2023 at 0.52 baht/share, yield 6.3%.
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2024-02-10 10:29:53
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