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This asteroid may hit Earth in 2032. Don’t panic—scientists have a plan. A newly discovered near-Earth asteroid called 2024 YR4 is one possibly perilous object: It’s a 130 to 300-foot long rock that currently stands a 1 in 53 chance of impacting somewhere on Earth on National Geographic.
PDF International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) Potential Asteroid Impact:
- Impact Risk Corridor: The impact risk corridor for 2024 YR4, which is the region of Earth along which a potential impact could occur, extends across the eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea, and South Asia.
- Asteroid size: 2024 YR4 is likely in the range 40-90 meters (130-300 feet) impact probability of asteroid 2024 YR4 from ESA’s Near-Earth Object Coordination Center (NEOCC), as of 6 February 2025:
- It is roughly the same size as the Tunguska asteroid that flattened about 830 square miles (2,150 sq km) of remote Siberian forest when it exploded in 1908. ESA.
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The Torino Impact Hazard Scale that ranges from a no-risk zero to a civilization-ending 10.
Fluctuations in the chances of a strike so far out from an object’s arrival are common, and in a YouTube video entitled “How asteroids go from threat to no sweat”, Esa explains that the likelihood of 2024 YR4 ever striking the planet will drop to virtually zero once updated data on speed and trajectory is received in the coming weeks and months.
The planetary defense coordination office of Nasa, the US space agency, agrees.
“There have been several objects in the past that have risen on the risk list and eventually dropped off as more data have come in,” researcher Molly Wasser said in a statement.
“New observations may result in reassignment of this asteroid to zero as more data come in.”
Colin Snodgrass, professor of planetary astronomy at the University of Edinburgh, told the Guardian last week: “Most likely this one will pass by harmlessly.
“it just deserves a little more attention with telescopes until we can confirm that. The longer we follow its orbit, the more accurate our future predictions of its trajectory become.”
Othre recent similar scares woudl appear to reinforce the message.
The asteroid 99942 Apophis, discovered in 2004 and larger than the Eiffel Tower, was once given a rating of four on the Torino scale, but was eventually calculated to be no threat to Earth on any of its close passes for at least the next 100 years.
Yet even if 2024 YR4 continues on towards Earth with a high chance of impact, the success of Nasa’s Dart mission in 2022, in which a spacecraft was deliberately crashed into an asteroid the size of a football stadium and altered its trajectory, gives grounds for optimism for the future of humanity.
“This asteroid is of the scale that a mission like Dart could be effective, if required, so we have the technology and it has been tested,” Snodgrass said.
Humanity’s Hard-Copy Act: Q&A with Asteroid Expert Colin snodgrass
Table of Contents
Recent discoveries of potential near-Earth objects,such as the comet 2024 YR4,have inspired optimism regarding humanity’s preparedness to counteract thes threats. A recent mission by NASA, where a spacecraft impacted an asteroid and altered its trajectory, has further bolstered confidence in our technological defenses.We recently sat down with Colin Snodgrass, professor of planetary astronomy at the University of Edinburgh, to discuss these implications and the broader context of asteroid threats.
Introduction to Asteroid Threats and Recent Discoveries
World Today News (WTN): Can you effectively summarize the recent discoveries related to potential asteroid threats like the near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR4?
.colin Snodgrass (CS): The finding of the asteroid 2024 YR4 has drawn attention because it has a non-trivial chance of impacting Earth by 2032.This chance, though small, is something scientists actively monitor.
understanding Impact Probability
WTN: How do scientists gauge the impact probability for objects like 2024 YR4?
CS: The probability assessment relies on data collection about an asteroid’s size, trajectory, and speed. Monitoring continues over a period to refine the predictions. In a video by Esa, it’s mentioned that the probability can decrease significantly as better data comes in over weeks and months.
Comparing to Previous Threats
WTN: How does the current threat level of 2024 YR4 compare to past high-profile near-Earth objects such as 99942 Apophis?
CS: The asteroid 99942 Apophis was initially rated a 4 on the Torino scale, indicating a notable risk. Though, updated data confirmed that Apophis will not impact Earth for at least the next century. Right now, 2024 YR4’s risk, though higher than Apophis’ for 2032, is still quite small.
The Technology Behind Planetary Defense
WTN: Can you explain how missions like DART (Double Asteroid redirection Test) fit into the defensive strategy against asteroids?
CS: The DART mission showed that we can change an asteroid’s trajectory by a spacecraft impact. This technique is a crucial component of our defensive strategy. Missions like these also serve as tests for future mission planning. The technology and procedures have now been,”
Regional Impact and Preparedness
WTN: What’s the meaning of the risk corridor for 2024 YR4, given it potentially affects regions from the eastern Pacific to South Asia?
CS: The impact risk corridor highlights the areas that could be affected. It’s a reminder that preparedness involves geological and regionalМарs that could potentially be hit. This creates a larger context for monitoring and planning local mitigation strategies.
Monitoring and Long-Term Security
WTN: How do you balance immediate threat reassessment with long-term security measures?
CS: Continuous monitoring and data collection are essential. As we gain more data, predictions can be refined and reassessed. Additionally, maintaining and expanding surveillance networks globally is key to staying ahead of potential threats.
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