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‘Association of Investment Analysts’ sees politics as a variable affecting Thai stocks Not allergic to economic recovery
Sombat Narawutichai, Secretary-General of the Association of Investment Analysts (IA), revealed the results of the survey of analysts and fund managers on their views on investment and forecast the direction of the Thai stock price index (SET Index) in the year. As of 2021, the index target at the end of this year averaged 1,559 points, 1,449 points higher than the end-of-2021 index, and the lowest of the Thai stock index during the year. The high is expected to average at 1,338 points, while the high is expected to average at 1,631 points, with a forecast of net profit per share (EPS) of the market average of 77.46 baht. DP) viewed as positive. The average value is 3.74%. The respondents average at 49.70 USD per barrel. The factors that positively affect the Thai stock price index are quantitative easing (QE) of major countries around the world. Foreign capital will flow into the Thai stock market. And the results of the listed companies The factors that will have a negative impact are the trend of the COVID-19 situation. Domestic political factors And the domestic economy It is worth noting that Economic conditions in that country Voters were fairly disagreed, with 52.17% of the vote seeing it as a negative factor, but 39.13% of respondents arguing it was positive.
“Political factors affect many aspects, such as government stability risks. To push any policy out Will be delayed and inconvenient If the government does not have 100% sufficient security or 70% security, then each operation will be viewed as “unstable”. Pushing out is difficult Including risks outside the council At both Thai and foreign investors Cannot predict conclusions or directions along the way Which every time was unexpected Will have a new risk condition Causing immediate addition of factors affecting the share value Causing politics to be seen as a top-level variable To keep an eye on, ”said Sombat.
Mr Sombat said the direction of investment in 2021 is expected to be easier than in 2020 as last year. The stock has fluctuated more than 600 points, which analysts expect to recover 600 points without fluctuation, but still more than 300 fluctuations. Especially the arrival of the COVID-19 vaccine. To make the economy recover But the Thai stock market index from this view that it will not go up not much. This is due to the fact that the index has rallied steadily since the second half of 2020, rising before the introduction of the COVID-19 vaccine. Or before the economic recovery The Thai economy is expected to have a truly positive trend in 2Q21 onwards, with a recovering average earnings per share of the company this year. And the policy interest rate, which is expected to drop by approximately 0.25%, should help support. Including the direction of foreign capital (Fund Flow.) That began to see flowing into the Thai stock market Who have left Thailand in large numbers, seeing that they are flowing back in late 2020 and seeing money flowing back this year
Mr Sombat said that in the stocks that researchers recommend, 4 or more of the same companies are 1.ADVANC 2.BDMS 3.CPALL 4.KBANK and 5.PTTGC. Hotels and airlines Also, avoid some stocks that have surged more than 1,000% due to the fact that their prices have greatly exceeded their fundamental values.
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