The war in Ukraine has reached a critical point as the country’s future and the security of Europe hang in the balance. Over the past 18 months, Ukraine has been mostly on the defensive, preventing Russia from seizing more territory. However, this summer, Ukraine has launched a counter-offensive with the help of Western military equipment, aiming to expel Russian forces from previously captured land in the east and south of the country.
Two months into the counter-offensive, the progress of Ukrainian troops is being closely examined. Working with BBC Verify, video footage of the fighting has been analyzed, and experts have been consulted to assess the situation. A large-scale map of eastern and southern Ukraine reveals that not much has changed since the counter-offensive began. Russia still occupies nearly one-fifth of Ukraine, including the cities of Donetsk and Mariupol, and its forces are well entrenched.
Despite the lack of significant gains, there have been some positive developments for Ukraine. The village of Staromaiorske in the Donetsk region has been retaken by Ukrainian troops, as verified by the BBC. In the east, around Bakhmut, Ukraine has regained some small areas that were previously lost. Additionally, small gains have been made in the Zaporizhzhia region in the south, which is a crucial area for Ukraine to make a decisive difference.
A significant breakthrough for Ukraine would be a push through the Russian-held territory to the Sea of Azov, disrupting Russia’s supply routes and cutting off their forces in Russian-annexed Crimea and further west. However, the extensive fortifications built by Russia, including triple layers of trenches, bunkers, tank-traps, and landmines, pose a massive obstacle to Ukrainian advances.
Russian defensive tactics have proven to be innovative and effective. They are using anti-tank mines and booby-trapping trenches to impede Ukrainian troops. The Russian military is also taking advantage of its air power, utilizing attack helicopters to target Ukrainian armored vehicles that encounter minefields. It is worth noting that Ukraine does not have air superiority over the battlefield.
While Russia was fortifying its defenses, Ukraine was assembling newly-formed armoured brigades, trained in Europe and equipped with better weaponry than the Russians. Ukraine now has the capability to launch missiles, rockets, or shells deep behind Russian lines, weakening their defenses from within. The use of British-supplied Storm Shadow missiles and US-supplied cluster munitions has enabled Ukraine to push some of Russia’s positions further away from the front line. However, analysts suggest that these weapons may not be a game-changer.
Time is not on Ukraine’s side. The rainy season will arrive in autumn, turning unpaved roads into mud and making further advances difficult. By the time the rainy season ends in spring, the US presidential election cycle will be underway. If Ukraine fails to show decisive gains on the battlefield by then, the continuation of US and NATO support at current levels is uncertain. Ukraine is racing against the clock, while Russia aims to hold onto the territory it has illegally
