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Assessing China’s Credit Numbers and the Impact on the Market

“Clearly, the market needs more time and information to assess the strong credit numbers at the end of the second quarter, although they look similar to the first-quarter data, the market will definitely interpret them with caution,” said Zhou Hao, economist at Guotai Junan. International.

“In our view, the most important thing is to gauge home sales across the country, which will provide new insight into the relationship between credit data and household sentiment.”

Loans to households, mainly mortgages, rose to 963.9 billion yuan in June from 362.7 billion yuan in May, while loans to businesses soared to 2.28 trillion yuan last month from 855.8 billion in May, according to central bank data.

China has moved to stimulate demand as households and private companies accumulate savings and reduce borrowing and spending to clean up balance sheets after three years of Covid-19 restrictions. More stimulus measures are expected.

China’s central bank on Monday extended until the end of 2024 some of the policies in a November bailout package to prop up the property sector.

The recovery of the second largest economy in the world after the covid crisis is faltering. In June, producer prices fell at the fastest rate in more than seven years and consumer prices were on the brink of deflation.

Premier Li Qiang, in a meeting with economists last week, vowed to implement a series of measures to stabilize growth and employment in a timely manner.

In June, the central bank cut its benchmark interest rates by 10 basis points, the first such cut in 10 months, to prop up the economy. The central bank has pledged to apply prudent policy “precisely and forcefully” to support the economy.

2023-07-11 21:22:41
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