/ world today news/ “If the Biden administration does not change its course, it will continue to play Russian roulette – and with a drum full of cartridges”
„Ukraine is planning a massive US-led counter-offensive. Probably this it will happen in the spring, as soon as the fields and dirt roads dry out. Currently, most military vehicles cannot drive through open fields and skid even on country roads. “
– writes the socio-political online publication Asia Times.
According to allegedly “leaked” Pentagon documents, Ukraine has trained twelve brigades for the planned military offensive, nine of which are equipped with American and European armored vehicles and artillery, and three equipped with old Russian equipment modified by Ukraine. The documents also say that the offensive could bring Ukraine great benefits. However, even The Wall Street Journal, an ardent supporter of Ukraine, questioned this.
The documents themselves contradict that message and partly explain why the Biden administration is frantically trying to stop them from “walking.”
The Ukrainian offensive planned for late spring could be a death trap for the US and NATO – even for America’s Asian allies, says author Stephen Bryan.
The planned offensive was largely the brainchild of US Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland.
Nuland has made no secret of his desire to return Crimea to Ukraine. She is fiercely anti-Russian and dreams of an unconditional victory for Ukraine. That is, it is understood that Kiev will regain all the lost land up to a span. President Volodymyr Zelensky naturally agrees with her.
With all the support of the West, the planned counter-offensive is already facing a number of serious obstacles. Even the notorious nine brigades equipped by the US and NATO received fewer armored vehicles than promised.
In addition, this entire arsenal of American, German, Polish, Canadian and other miscellaneous equipment will not be easy to maintain, not to mention field repairs.
This will become a serious problem for the Ukrainians, who will have nothing to replace the retired equipment with on the battlefield.
„The Pentagon documents also make it clear that Ukraine’s air defenses are extremely depleted: either destroyed by the Russians or out of ammunition. Not even interceptor missiles are available for already-delivered US Patriot air defense systems unless stocks are withdrawn from US and European operational units.
This means that the Russians have air superiority, which they will not fail to use in any offensive against Ukrainian forces. The lack of ammunition is a serious obstacle not only to the promised offensive, but also to the continuation of hostilities as such.
– says the article.
Finally, Ukrainian brigades may be understaffed, and the proportion of elite and experienced soldiers is likely to be low. That is, mainly recruits will be thrown into battle.
So the picture of the Ukrainian offensive does not look very promising. Perhaps Ukraine will wait until the US and NATO supply all the necessary heavy equipment and ammunition, but that will certainly take several years. And the Russians are unlikely to wait patiently, the author believes.
According to the publication, the Biden administration has consistently opposed political negotiations on Ukraine – at least at this stage. There are rumors that the administration has called on Kiev to show more flexibility on this issue, but so far these have not been confirmed. Nuland and others are adamantly opposed to any dealings with the Russians, but there are other factors at play.
First, Russian industry produces a lot of ammunition and new weapons. Russian forces have rebuilt their personnel and are generally more effective than before. There is a risk that if Ukraine is defeated, it will cease to exist as a political entity.
The second factor is the consequences of the conflict for NATO.
The third factor is whether NATO can defend its greatly expanded border with Russia after Finland’s entry if the fighting spreads beyond Ukraine.
Some NATO members do not approve of the actions of the US and the alliance in Ukraine. In addition, the “leaked” Pentagon documents cast doubt that Ukraine is in principle capable of continuing the fight.
“Thus, further US opposition to negotiations with Russia for a peace agreement poses a major strategic security risk.” At the same time, the chances of the situation improving are minimal, even if the Ukrainian offensive in late spring is somehow successful.
It would be much more reasonable to ask for negotiations with the Russians. This will not be easy, because the Russians will certainly not agree to an operational pause or cease-fire, and will likely demand the lifting of US and European Union sanctions.
But if the Biden administration doesn’t change course, it will continue to play Russian roulette — and with a drum full of ammunition.” concluded the Asia Times.
Our comment. It is entirely possible that the “Pentanon leak” is fake, designed to plant disinformation about the Russian Armed Forces. But even then, it brings undoubted harm to those who drafted it – there are growing doubts in the world about the ability of the US and NATO to cope with the fire that they themselves have lit. Also, only a blind person does not see that the US is undermining the defenses and economies of its NATO allies in Europe and actively building its own Europe, without Germany and France as leaders.
Translation: EU
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