The Burmese military coup of February 2021 prompted ASEAN to negotiate a five-point consensus that was meant to end violence and initiate political dialogue between groups. However, the military regime has since ignored the consensus and continued its war against Myanmar’s civilian population. While ASEAN remains hopeful of a solution, its efforts have been largely cosmetic, with member states such as Thailand resorting to direct talks with the junta. Additionally, neighboring countries have their own agendas, with China seeking to protect its economic interests while India, Bangladesh, and Thailand hope to maintain normalized ties with the junta. The junta itself is waging a multi-front war, with a theory of victory that involves terrorizing civilians into submission and delegitimizing the opposition government. Any international legitimacy conferred on the junta only serves to strengthen their resolve.
