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Trump’s tariff war: asia’s winners and losers | articles | ING Think
While steel tariffs are likely directed towards China, Vietnam‘s economy appears most exposed in Asia; its steel plus aluminium exports to the US were 0.3% of GDP in 2024. Another country that ranks higher in its exposure to steel and aluminium exports to the US is South Korea. In 2018, Korea was granted a tariff-free export quota by the US.
Promise and peril for Southeast Asia in Trump’s tariff talk
And even if Southeast Asian countries avoid the added U.S.tariffs or trade curbs many fear, they may still face the 10%-20% levy Trump has proposed imposing on all U.S. imports across the board.
The Impacts of the US Tariff Hikes on Southeast Asian Economies
Southeast Asian companies plugged into China’s supply chains through backward and forward linkages in low-carbon technologies targeted for tariff actions will be adversely impacted. Currently, Southeast Asian economies rely heavily on Chinese industrial inputs. if the US makes it more challenging for products with high Chinese content to enter …
Vietnam’s Trade Surplus with the US
Vietnam is among the top countries with a trade surplus with the US. The two-way trade exceeded $132 billion in 2024,with vietnam exporting goods worth roughly $119 billion to the US,according to data from Vietnam customs.
“You need to understand the economic logic or illogic behind these ideas (of Trump),” said McCarty. “It is indeed really simple … he just thinks he hates Americans being taxed so he is going to make everyone not tax American goods.”
McCarty said the US is “becoming more insulated and cutting itself off from the world”.
Trump’s Thursday memorandum is the latest in his series of moves to raise levies in line with his campaign promise to boost US industries and protect jobs. Early this month, Trump imposed an additional 10 percent levy on Chinese goods and a 25 percent tariff on steel and aluminum imports from all countries.
While ASEAN economies were not directly targeted by the tariff hikes, governments in the region are implementing policies to reduce the risk of increased trade protectionism.Source
Analyzing trade Tensions: The Impact of Trump’s Tariffs on Asia
Table of Contents
As tensions escalate in the global trade arena, the economic fallout is keenly felt across Asia. President Trump’s tariffs on chinese goods, steel, and aluminum have sparked widespread concern, notably among Southeast Asian nations deeply integrated into global supply chains. In this interview, we speak with [Guest Name], a leading expert on international trade, too dissect the complex implications for the region.
Vietnamese Vulnerabilities
Senior Editor: Your research highlights Vietnam’s critically important exposure to US tariffs. Could you elaborate on the potential economic impact on Vietnam?
[Guest Name]: Absolutely. Vietnam has a considerable reliance on exporting steel and aluminum products to the US. In 2024, these exports accounted for a significant 0.3% of Vietnam’s GDP. This vulnerability stems from its manufacturing sector’s close ties with the US market.The imposition of tariffs could directly impact Vietnamese industries and perhaps lead to job losses.
South Korea’s Strategic Position
Senior Editor: south Korea was granted a tariff-free quota for its steel and aluminum exports to the US in 2018. Does this provide a cushion against the current trade tensions?
[Guest Name]: While the tariff-free quota is undoubtedly beneficial, it’s crucial to remember that it’s limited in scope. The overall trade landscape is dynamic, and any unforeseen shifts in US trade policy could still impact South Korea. Moreover, south Korea is a major exporter of electronics, a sector that could face indirect consequences from the US-China trade war due to supply chain disruptions.
The Ripple Effect on Southeast Asia
Senior Editor: We’ve seen reports suggesting that all ASEAN economies might experience repercussions, even those not directly targeted by tariffs. Could you expand on this?
[Guest Name]: Certainly. While ASEAN economies have not been directly targeted,they are heavily intertwined with global supply chains,particularly those involving China. If the US imposes tariffs on Chinese goods, Southeast Asian companies relying on Chinese inputs will likely face higher costs. This could inhibit their competitiveness and ultimately lead to economic slowdown. Moreover, the uncertainty surrounding US trade policy can deter foreign investment, further impacting regional growth.
Senior Editor: What strategies are ASEAN countries adopting to mitigate these risks?
[Guest Name]: ASEAN governments are implementing several measures to navigate these challenging times.They are diversifying their trade partners, exploring new markets beyond the US and China. Some are strategically investing in infrastructure and human capital progress to enhance their competitiveness.Additionally, fostering greater regional economic integration within ASEAN is seen as a way to strengthen their collective bargaining power in the global trade arena.
Looking ahead
Senior Editor: What are your overall thoughts on the future trajectory of US-Asia trade relations given these developments?
[Guest Name]: The future remains uncertain. The path of US trade policy is subject to shifts and unpredictable factors.However, it’s clear that the current trade tensions will have a lasting impact on the economic landscape of Asia. It’s essential for ASEAN countries to maintain their focus on economic diversification, regional integration, and building resilient supply chains to weather the storm and emerge stronger.
This interview reveals the complex and multifaceted nature of the economic fallout from President Trump’s tariffs. While some countries may benefit in the short term, the long-term consequences for Asia, particularly Southeast Asia, are potentially profound. Diversification, resilience, and regional cooperation will be key to mitigating the risks and navigating a rapidly evolving global trade environment.
