Myanmar’s ongoing conflict made headlines again after a convoy carrying humanitarian aid was attacked by an unknown armed group in Taunggyi, a city in eastern Myanmar. The convoy was transporting assistance from the ASEAN Coordinating Centre for Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Management (AHA Centre) and included Indonesian diplomats and the ASEAN Monitoring Team. The incident took place merely days before the 42nd ASEAN Summit in Labuan Bajo, West Manggarai district, East Nusa Tenggara (NTT) province, adding to growing concerns over Myanmar’s instability.
During a press conference on preparations for the summit, President Joko Widodo (Jokowi) expressed regret over the attack, and Singapore also reacted strongly to the incident. The southern part of Shan State, where Taunggyi is located, was reported to be one of the few areas in the country not significantly affected by the armed conflict that followed the overthrow of the democratically elected government by the military junta. However, a massacre was reported in March 2023 in the same area, which claimed the lives of approximately 30 people who were taking refuge in a monastery.
Both the Myanmar military and opposition parties accused each other of orchestrating the massacre, and ethnic minority groups have been fighting against the military junta in several regions of Myanmar, including Shan, Chin, Kachin, Kayah, Kayin, Mon, and Rakhine. The conflict has claimed the lives of nearly 3,200 civilians and forced thousands of others to flee. The safety of the ASEAN convoy, which was part of the Five-Point Consensus agreed upon by General Min Aung Hlaing and the head of state of other ASEAN member countries in Jakarta in April 2021, could not be guaranteed.
Through the consensus, ASEAN called for an immediate cessation of violence in Myanmar and the implementation of constructive dialogue involving all parties to find a peaceful solution in the interests of the people. The consensus also mandated that a special envoy of the ASEAN chair, assisted by the Secretary-General of ASEAN, facilitate the mediation, as well as visit Myanmar to meet with all parties involved. Although the permit given to the AHA Centre to enter the territory of Myanmar and distribute aid indicated the junta’s willingness to start implementing the provisions of the Five-Point Consensus, other ASEAN member countries were not satisfied.
Hence, ASEAN prohibited junta leaders from attending the 42nd ASEAN Summit. This was an appropriate decision on the part of ASEAN to pressure the junta to hold peaceful negotiations with opposing parties and find a comprehensive solution to terminate the conflict.
The junta has continued to seek support from parties outside ASEAN, such as China and Russia, and if this situation continues, the crisis in Myanmar may worsen. Myanmar’s economy, which had grown quite rapidly before the 2021 coup, has now declined by 18%, according to the World Bank. Undoubtedly, the junta’s inability and mismanagement in administering Myanmar’s economy have led to the sector’s deterioration, and the country has lost significant foreign investment, with many foreign companies leaving the country.
Moreover, the economic crisis has resulted in a devaluation of the Myanmar currency, shedding half of its original value and resulting in a high inflation rate of 16% in 2022. Consequently, commodity prices are soaring, while people’s purchasing power is declining, hampering communities’ access to basic commodities. The World Food Program (WFP) estimates that 14.4 million people in Myanmar, or 25% of the total population, are at risk of food insecurity due to the conflict.
The country is facing two calamities at once: widespread violence and hunger. Furthermore, if circumstances worsen, there may be waves of refugees fleeing from Myanmar to other countries in Southeast Asia, especially Laos and Thailand, which share borders with Myanmar. Hence, ASEAN must increase efforts to actively press the military junta to involve all parties to produce and implement lasting and comprehensive solutions to bring back peace in Myanmar.
The end of the conflict in Myanmar could bolster regional stability and help ASEAN establish itself as an epicenter of global growth. Therefore, the junta must implement the Five-Point Consensus agreed upon by it and other ASEAN countries and work towards finding a peaceful solution in the interests of the people. Exerting pressure on the junta to hold peaceful negotiations and ensure that dialogue is involved could be an appropriate way forward. These attempts do not seek to intervene in Myanmar’s domestic problems but aim to reach a consensus that has been agreed upon by the junta and other ASEAN governments.
