“The number one self-proclaimed Trump fan in the world, Viktor Orbán and the political leadership appointed by him, watch a little helplessly that they have a political opponent who works in a Trumpian style”
– political analyst Zoltán Lakner, editor-in-chief of Jelen, said in the Telex broadcast about how Péter Magyar uses the scandals generated against him to his advantage, and how he stokes the fire by focusing attention on economic problems. “Until there are economic changes, I don’t really see why the difference between Fidesz and Tisza would increase,” added Lakner.
Lakner also spoke about the fact that, although according to the current Median survey Tisza already has 47 percent of sure party voters, and Fidesz has 36 percent, we can say that because no one knows what the end will be: “one can only watch that what trend do the results of the various pollsters show”. Lakner emphasized that since the EP elections, the difference between Tisza and Fidesz has sometimes increased and decreased. In the current political environment, according to him, the main issue for Fidesz will be the economy. According to him, opinion polls close to the government “show numbers” that “are seen by an environment that wants to see a confident Fidesz”, but according to Lakner, this is more “part of the propaganda machine”.
Szajer and Csurka
According to Zoltán Lakner, the return of József Szájer to the public is more of a political mistake, especially in a year in which the public mood is determined by the pardon scandal and economic difficulties. The analyst added that he thought it was interesting that it was revealed openly at József Szájer’s book launch that Szájer essentially wrote the constitution, and in the process “showcased” how, for example, the law should be bent to the will of the government. According to Lakner, with this, the government “missed the calendar a little, because it would have been possible to talk about something like this one or two years ago.”
Lakner also brought up that Mária Schmidt held an István Csurka conference in addition to Szájer’s book presentation. According to the political analyst, it is also surprising how Schmidt tried to “work Csurka’s anti-Semitism into the anti-Western ideology”, while the government says that at home “the Jewish community can live in safety, and at the same time, they raise the well-known anti-Semitic thinker to a pedestal”. Churka. According to Lakner, it’s hard to call these rubber bones, rather it seems that the ruling party has lost its rhythm:
“Fidesz’s strength was precisely that it gave answers to questions affecting people, but now it is difficult to determine to whom Csurka or Szájer is important”.
According to Lakner, Szájer is a bit like the clemency decision, in both cases “there was obviously some explanation in a certain circle for the fact that this happened”, but then it had a different effect than what was calculated. “I see that in the year 2024, they will continue to reach out,” Lakner summarized the government’s situation with the pardon case and József Szájer.
“If a political community receives constant confirmation and the experience that anything fits into it and can do anything, then this can destroy its ability to adapt and learn,” said Lakner about why it looks as if Fidesz has lost its connection with the with reality. “You can order the numbers you want, but after a while it won’t match reality,” he added.
Half-sided arsenal
Lakner also spoke about the fact that Péter Magyar’s tour of the country, but also from the demonstrations in Hajdúböszörmény and the change of leadership, shows that the conditions are changing. According to Lakner, Magyar also reacted to the audio recording scandal in a “politically understandable” way, and went back to touring the country at the right time. Lakner added that he knows that Péter Magyar would be offended by this, but politically, according to him, Magyar is now like “a 2004 Gyurcsány”, who also admits that “I made a mistake, but I will get over it”. According to him, we can now see a falling out of love with Orbán, and a falling in love, or at least a cautious observation of Magyar from a distance, on the part of the voters.
“The majority of voters are not political analysts, but are informed by impressions. These are the impressions that things are slipping out of Orbán’s hands, that there is Péter Magyar who says things,” summarized Lakner, indicating that it is not known how long this will last, but a better economic situation would certainly be necessary for change. According to Lakner, looking at his style, “in this game, Péter Magyar is more like Trump”. He added,
“until the economic situation improves, Fidesz’s political arsenal is one-sided”.
“While they talk about sovereignty, they still expect change from foreign factors,” added Lakner. Although, according to him, the fundamental mistake is that the kind of peace that Orbán hopes for from Trump is the kind of peace that would improve the Hungarian economy. Since this peace would entail a loss of territory for Ukraine, it would make Europe unstable, and from then on, “Central Europe will not be a safer place. This would mean that Russia will get a paper on him, that he can threaten anyone, kidnap anything, anywhere”. According to Lakner, despite the economic situation, there will be “handouts” by the government before the election, probably from loans. However, according to him, large distributions cannot be made again, “you cannot re-introduce the 13th monthly pension, at most put another sticker on it”.
Lakner also spoke about the fact that there is such a restrictive policy at home that neither built for the next year nor fixed the economic difficulties. And according to him, things are complicated if the government “starts from the axioms that it invented”. In the end, Lakner said about the Minister of National Economy’s visit to the country: “I don’t know if Viktor Orbán’s fate will not be Márton Nagy”. Zoltán Lakner also spoke about how the government apparently “always wants to solve the problems of other countries, while not a single figure is found at home”.
Lakner spoke about, among other things, that
- It is an interesting phenomenon that János Lázár said about the MÁV that he had to build a castle out of shit, but according to Lakner “there is no need to overthink this, but even Lázár cannot believe that if Fidesz fails, he will not”;
- According to opposition voters, one of the big problems of the opposition for years is that they focus on internal seat distribution, not on whether they can defeat Fidesz. According to him, if the various opposition parties fail in Tolna’s by-election, then “exactly what Péter Magyar points out will happen, that you are children, you hardly exist anymore”;
- I do not see an upward movement in DK’s support and the question is whether the party could make itself more attractive;
- This week there was a wage agreement with the participation of the government, as a comment on which Orbán said that “we have to work better than before”. According to Lakner, this political pattern is Kadarian.
- Lakner said about the protagonists of the country districts that now “who matters is Viktor Orbán, and who matters is Péter Magyar. And this in itself is a new development in Hungarian politics, that we can say two names at all”.
You can watch the entire broadcast here:
