The war in Ukraine has been going on for over a month, and many millions have fled their country.
Those left in Ukraine live in a country where the plane alarm goes off every day and a life in a bomb shelter has become the new normal.
Several have gone out and warned about what could happen the worst humanitarian disaster in history.
Which Ukraine will be left when there is peace in Europe again, the experts believe is completely dependent on whether there will be a pro-Russian or a democratically elected government in Ukraine.
The war is not over
Kristian Åtland is a senior researcher at the Norwegian Defense Research Establishment. He believes the war will end with a form of negotiation solution, which both parties will try to present as a victory.
– The most important thing for Zelensky is that Ukraine survives as an independent state and that the Russian forces withdraw, says Åtland.
– EXPERT: Kristian Åtland has a master’s degree in Russian cultural studies from the University of Oslo and a doctorate in political science from the University of Tromsø Photo: Norwegian Armed Forces Research Institute
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– The war is still not settled, even though the Ukrainians have largely managed to stop the Russian advance, not least north of Kyiv, the senior researcher explains.
Åtland believes that the Ukrainians have shown that they are able to defend their country, without being a NATO member. He believes this is undoubtedly important for Ukraine’s self-confidence.
– It has probably also been important for them that the world community is on their side, says Åkland.
Needs tangible security guarantees
He goes on to say which side the world community stands on was already expressed at the beginning of March, when 141 of the UN member states voted in favor of a resolution condemning the Russian invasion, while only five voted against.
– Ukraine will hardly trust Russia again. Therefore, it is important for the Ukrainians that a peace solution includes security guarantees from Western powers.
This is also Russia expert and researcher at the Norwegian Institute of Foreign Policy (NUPI), Jakub Godzmiriski, agrees.
“Ukraine needs tangible and legal security guarantees,” Godzimirski said.
– Politically, many believe that Russia has already lost, Godzmirski believes.
Both Godzimiriski and Åkland point out that it may seem that Russia will not be able to achieve its original goal of appointing a Russian-friendly head of state.
– NUPI: Jakub Godzimirski has worked with Russian foreign and security policy at NUPI for over 20 years Photo: Sveinung Kyte / TV 2
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– It seems that Russia has now realized that they will not be able to achieve their original goal with this war, which was to occupy the Ukrainian capital, oust President Zeleny and establish a Russian-friendly puppet regime.
A puppet regime is an authority or government that in practice is governed by another state.
– Instead, Russia has probably concentrated its efforts in the east and south of the country, with a view to reinforcing and possibly expanding its territorial control there, says Åkland.
Godzmiriski believes Russia has now changed its plans.
– ON THE RUN: Many millions of civilians have fled the war in Ukraine. Although the war will one day end, experts believe we will see Ukrainians continue to flee the country. Photo: Tom Rune Orset / TV 2
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– When this war began, it seemed that the goal of the operation was to replace Zelenskyj, but now Zelenskyj is considered a leader to negotiate with. This is an important change due to the fact that the Russian operation did not go as planned, Godzmiriski believes.
Which Ukraine will be left?
It is not certain that all Ukrainians who have fled can move back home after the end of the war.
Large parts of Ukraine are leveled, especially in the northern, southern and eastern parts of the country. The city of Mariupol has been subjected to almost constant bombing since the war became a fact.
– Ukraine was initially a thoroughly industrialized country, especially east of the river Dnipro. Much of the industrial infrastructure has been destroyed, and the environmental damage is significant, says Åtland.
In addition to being a fully industrialized country, Ukraine exports a lot of food such as grain products.
– It will be important, also for the rest of the world, that Ukraine’s agricultural production is resumed as soon as possible, and that Ukraine again gets the opportunity to export agricultural and industrial products to the rest of the world through the Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea.
Godzimirski points out that what happens to the Ukrainians when they can return to their country depends entirely on who is in power and what the peace agreement entails.
Zelesnkyj has discussed the future of the two breakaway republics of Donetsk and Luhansk. Godzmiriski believes that if the breakaway republics become Russian, there will probably be many who will travel from these areas. But if a pro-Russian government is installed in Ukraine, the future of many is unclear.
– Many of those who remain have actively participated in the war. If the Russians establish a pro-Russian government, those who have fought may receive reprisals and may have to flee Ukraine, Godzmirski says.
What if Russia wins the war?
Tom Røseth, associate professor and head teacher of intelligence at the Norwegian Defense College, tells how he thinks Ukraine would look if Russia wins the war. He believes some parts of Ukraine will be incorporated into Russia, most likely the Crimean peninsula and the Donbass.
In that case, other areas must be able to count on being ruled by pro-Russian leaders, ie a puppet government, he explains.
– This means that regional Russian-friendly leaders are appointed in occupied territories. These can cast a shadow of legitimacy and will be able to seek to conduct elections in areas they occupy over time.
– OVERWHELMED: Tom Røseth at the Norwegian Defense College believes that areas in Ukraine will be ruled by pro-Russian leaders if Russia wins the war. Photo: Odd Arne Hartvigsen / TV 2
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The people of Ukraine will see this as an oppression without a political freedom. For them, it will be a foreign power that dictates the political development, Røseth says.
– Many will probably continue to flee Ukraine. They no longer live in a democratic society, and they therefore feel compelled to flee. But it depends on how brutal the occupying power becomes, it is still uncertain, he says.
Will be a major threat to neighboring countries
– What kind of consequences will it have for the world community that a country takes over all or parts of another country?
– It will lead to a deteriorating security situation in Europe with a hot conflict where you get a guerrilla uprising in Ukraine over time, and a Russia that is isolated and aggressive, he says.
– European security structure will be harmful over time and we will see increased uncertainty. In relation to the Cold War, this will be more dynamic, and there will be a higher risk that the conflict may expand, he continues.
– WAR: The center of Odesa during the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The photo was taken on March 24. Photo: Bent Skjærstad / TV 2
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– Will neighboring countries fear Russia even more?
– Yes. Especially Moldova and Georgia. But Balitkum will also feel increased insecurity. Maybe Norway too, he says.
Despite the fact that Norway and several of the neighboring countries are members of NATO, he believes that these countries will still feel threatened.
– It is unlikely, but the threat will be there, he says.
He continues:
“Once Russia has proven that it is attacking a neighboring state because it is about to be democratized, and they have carried out military action without being punished for it, it may mean that Russia continues when it has regained its forces after the war,” he said. he.
– BOTH HAVE LOST: Tom Røseth at the Norwegian Defense College believes both countries have already lost big in the war. Photo: Martin Leigland / TV 2
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When asked if he has any thoughts on who will win the war, he answers that both countries have already lost a lot on the war.
– I think Russia can win territories, but they will not win the peace in Ukraine. Ukraine has proven that if it can not prevent Russia from winning the war, it will still be depleting for Russia. But also for Ukraine while the hostilities are taking place. So both parties are losing heavily on this, he says.
Will calm down for a while
Both countries are politically motivated, and apparently have support from their population to continue the war until it becomes more exhausting, Røseth believes.
– I imagine that the war will last until the summer at least. Maybe longer if they do not agree on a compromise, he says.
Røseth believes the war will calm down for a period now, where one will see a lack of great Russian offensive.
– They do not have the resources for that for a period. Except in the south, there will probably be some movement. Then the war will pick up again when the earth dries up in May. So now there is a window to negotiate, but at the same time I do not think any parties are exhausted enough to want to enter into serious negotiations. Especially not the Russians, he says.
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