President Trump proposed a 19% tax on all imports from China, noting that global financial markets have not yet recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic and are struggling to adjust to the separation of the United States and China in several important technology sectors. requested that it be imposed. region.
Ms. Harris emphasized that her goal as the new president is “to ensure that America wins the 21st century race.”
To some commentators who closely watch Asia, there appears to be little difference between the two presidential candidates. Ultimately, both Mr. Trump and Ms. Harris agree on the view that they promote American strength and that the economy comes first. The world is engaged in a zero-sum competition with China.
In fact, there are two hard truths that Democrats and Republicans must accept if they are to develop a long-term Asia strategy. first, The United States will no longer enjoy its unrivaled status as the world’s sole superpower. mondayChina’s capabilities are no longer in doubt globally.
By most objective measures, Washington’s position in Asia at the end of 2024 is considered more secure than it was in 2020.
Specifically, President Biden’s administration is now granted access to nine bases. Armed Forces It is part of the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) signed in 2014. In 2023, the United States completed an upgrade of the Defense Cooperation Agreement while establishing a new triangular relationship with Japan and South Korea, two traditional allies in Northeast Asia. Strategic partnership with Vietnam.
However, despite Washington’s recent remarkable moves, the decline in the influence of Asia’s No. 1 superpower is expected to be a cause for concern.
By continuing to pursue a strategy of implicit global leadership while distancing itself from developing regional economic structures by refusing to participate in free trade agreements (FTAs), the United States is gradually losing influence over the largest continent on Earth.
The Biden administration’s carelessness and inconsistency are the cause of the current situation, and although it can be corrected, time is running out.
U.S. policymakers frequently emphasize that Washington is the largest foreign direct investor in Southeast Asia, but this is only true when considered in terms of its share of total investment. Over the past year, China has invested significantly more than the United States in the region ($218 billion versus $158 billion), according to new data from the Lowy Institute for International Policy Studies.
Analysts say the next administration, whether Democratic or Republican, has an opportunity to reshape Washington’s Asia policy to meet calls for a more active and balanced U.S. role in the region. Therefore, the incoming White House owner must consider three principles to achieve the right balance.
first of all Asian countries want a more moderate and sustained U.S. presence, based on security partnerships and the ability to provide necessary resources, such as military bases, as well as economic and financial development to meet the needs of the region’s fast-growing middle class.
Asia’s middle class is expected to grow to 203 billion people in the next three to five years, making it the world’s largest. A 2019 report from the Asian Development Bank (ADB) estimates infrastructure needs in developing countries in the Indo-Pacific. Considering Binh Duong’s ability to adapt to climate change, it is expected to reach $1.7 trillion per year by 2030.
However, recent research shows that official development finance in Southeast Asia in 2022 will be at its lowest level in real terms since 2015.
mondaythe United States does not necessarily have to be the most powerful country to be able to contribute positively to regional order. Policymakers in Washington are still basing their regional strategies on the assumption that the United States is still number one in the world and has no competition in Asia. However, this is an unrealistic goal.
Foreign policies based on hegemony are known to waste scarce resources and put pressure on policymakers. Especially at a time when American voters are most concerned about the “health” of the economy and health care. medical treatment.
at lastAsian countries do not want to be forced to choose between two superpowers: China and the United States. China has always been a major economic partner for Asian countries and this will continue to be confirmed and maintained.
Facing the limits of his power and influence, the new U.S. president must recognize the value of America’s alliances and partnerships around the world. We continue to empower partners and allies who are willing to play a constructive role in maintaining the rules-based international order.
Nonetheless, neither side shows signs of abandoning its current trajectory, which places competition with China as a top priority and has the vague goal of winning the strategic competition.
Foreign policy has never been a priority issue in American elections, but it ranks relatively high on the list of concerns among American voters. 62% of all voters say foreign policy plays a very important role in deciding who to vote for (70%). 54% of Trump supporters, 54% of Harris supporters).
Both Mr. Trump and Ms. Harris want to emphasize their role as candidates for “change,” and change is exactly what America’s future Asia strategy needs. This election provides a valuable opportunity to reimagine Washington’s goals in the context of 21st century global realities.
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