The embattled Lukashenko is now signaling for help to his last standing ally: Russia. But despite fears that Russia could support the Belarusian leader, perhaps even with a military intervention, it appears President Vladimir Putin is in no rush to throw him a lifeline.
“There is certainly no love lost between Putin and Lukashenko,” Emily Ferris, a Russia research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) think tank in London, told NBC News.
Russian President Vladimir Putin (R) followed by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko (L), entering a meeting hall during the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council, in Saint Petersburg in December 2019.Mikhail Klimentyev / AFP – Getty Images file
Although Putin has not publicly commented on the ongoing internal unrest in Belarus, he spoke to Lukashenko on the phone twice over the last weekend.
According to the Kremlin’s official transcripts, he promised “assistance” under a 1994 security agreement, which mandates both countries to offer assistance — including militarily if necessary — if one faces an external threat.
Linas Linkevicius, foreign minister of neighboring Lithuania, said Monday that should Russia respond with military force, it would confirm its reputation as a “lawless state.”
But experts say that moment is far from becoming reality.
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“At the moment, there is no evident need for Russia to take military action,” said Keir Giles, a senior consulting fellow at Chatham House, a London think tank.
Giles said the security treaty allows for member countries to help each other in more situations than just external aggression, although Lukashenko has maintained that opposition is being manipulated by foreign powers, stoking fears about NATO’s presence on the country’s western borders this weekend.
Giles said the treaty also stipulates “menace to safety, stability, territorial integrity and sovereignty” of members as a situation where action can be taken.
But that assistance need not be only military.
A woman waves an old Belarusian national flag as protesters gather during opposition rally in front of the government building in Minsk, Belarus, Monday.Sergei Grits / AP
Giles asid Russia could step in with a whole range of other initiatives before the situation got that far, such as setting itself up as a mediator for a transition of power already suggested by opposition leader and runner-up Svetlana Tsikhanouskaya, who said Monday she was ready to step in as national leader after disputing election result.
There are also plenty of other forms of “assistance” that could be dressed up by Moscow as something acceptable, Giles said, including reinforcing Belarusian security forces with Russia’s own heavily militarized national guard.
“Russia will be ready, no doubt,” he added. “But for the time being, there is no threat of Moscow’s biggest concern, which is a new government in Minsk looking to cut economic and security ties with Russia and turn to the west.”
Tsikhanouskaya had previously voiced her opposition to deeper integration with Moscow at the expense of her country’s sovereignty, but has nonetheless said she would embrace good, friendly relations with all of her country’s neighbors, including Russia.
Rendering any military assistance for Lukashenko would also be an extremely unpopular move domestically for Putin, said Ferris, with RUSI.
Belarus and Russia share deep economic, historic and cultural ties but Putin’s relationship with Lukashenko became frosty after unsuccessful talks last year to deepen the integration between the two countries, with the Belarusian president rejecting what he saw as an assault on his country’s sovereignty.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, center, surrounded by his bodyguards listens to an employee of the Minsk Wheel Tractor Plant in Minsk, Belarus, Monday.Andrei Stasevich / AP
Those ties were further strained just before the election after Belarus detained a group of suspected Russian mercenaries, who Belarusian authorities accused of being in the country to destabilize it. Russia denies employing mercenaries for this purpose.
Ferris added that unlike in Ukraine, where during the political turmoil in 2014 Russia backed anti-government separatists in the eastern Ukraine resulting in a military conflict that has yet to be resolved, there are fewer divides along ethnic or linguistic lines in Belarus, making it hard to draw parallels.
Moreover, Russia has been trying to extricate itself from responsibility for the situation in eastern Ukraine without losing control and saving face for years, she said, making Putin likely highly unwilling to risk going down this path again.
Instead, Ferris said the situation that occurred in Armenia in 2018 could serve as a possible option — although a Moscow-friendly government was no longer in power, she said, Russia decided to forge links with the new leader to ensure Armenia remained relatively on side.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko delivers a speech during a rally of his supporters near the Government House in Independence Square in Minsk, Belarus, on Sunday.Reuters
“Even though Moscow would ultimately prefer to see Lukashenko remain in power, should another perhaps more ‘pro-western’ leader come to power, Russia would be able to broker a decent relationship with that incumbent, even if it is not ideal,” she added.
What Lukashenko’s appeals to Putin really show is that he might not be able to deal with the protests without Putin’s help, said Yauheni Preiherman, director of the Minsk Dialogue Council on International Relations, a political think tank.
“This very political crisis, no matter who is going to prevail in the end, has already undermined Belarusian sovereignty to an extent never seen before,” Preiherman said. “And that is Russia’s ideal scenario no matter what happens next.”
