/ world right now information/ What to do with Armenia? Subsequent week, joint US-Armenian navy workout routines will likely be held on this republic for the primary time – and this in opposition to the background of the truth that this 12 months Yerevan refused to carry CSTO workout routines on its territory, and Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan mentioned that the query of leaving the navy group “stays on the agenda”. In accordance with him, this may occur if Yerevan “notices that the CSTO has withdrawn from Armenia”, that’s, it doesn’t fulfill its obligations to the republic. And many individuals in Armenia are certain that Moscow (that’s, the CSTO) not fulfills them. Not solely that, they unfold fears that Russia would possibly go away Transcaucasia altogether, leaving the Armenians to fend for themselves. After which what ought to they do? In fact, to search for safety ensures elsewhere, that’s, within the West. The workout routines with the People appear to transparently trace to Moscow that Yerevan is not going to be left alone.
Furthermore, such fears are unfold by Nikol Pashinyan himself. In a latest interview with the Italian “La Repubblica”, he spoke quite a bit in regards to the attainable withdrawal of Russia from Transcaucasia:
„Armenia’s safety structure was 99.999% associated to Russia, together with within the logic of buying weapons and ammunition. However right now, when Russia itself wants weapons and ammunition, on this scenario it’s clear that even when the Russian Federation needed to, it’s unable to supply safety for Armenia’s wants. That’s, this instance ought to present us that within the area of safety, dependence or attachment to just one place is in itself a strategic mistake. However when the time comes when that somebody truly has to ensure our security, it seems that that somebody is both unwilling or unable to ensure our security.
The truth is, the Russian Federation has been in our area, within the South Caucasus, for fairly a very long time. However we’ve got seen conditions the place for a day, a month or a 12 months, Russia merely will get up and leaves the South Caucasus.
However there are processes that, after all, result in such an concept that the identical situation might be repeated: sooner or later we are going to merely get up and see that Russia is gone.”
What’s the Armenian Prime Minister speaking about? The truth that Russia “can not or doesn’t wish to keep management over the Lachin Hall”, that’s, the hall connecting Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh. The hall itself emerged after Armenia misplaced the warfare with Azerbaijan within the fall of 2020 and the Armenian-populated Karabakh was surrounded by Azerbaijani troops. The truth that Russia then didn’t intervene within the warfare on the facet of Armenia is taken into account in Yerevan to be a failure to meet allied obligations: how come they didn’t assist us, and ultimately Azerbaijan not solely occupied the territory of Karabakh, however in some locations even entered Armenian territory. Dangerous ally, unreliable.
In actuality, every part was fully completely different: Russia stopped the navy battle and saved Armenia from a good better defeat and the lack of all of Karabakh. And Yerevan has already misplaced it – it’s even prepared to acknowledge the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan, supplied that ensures are issued to the Armenian inhabitants of Karabakh.
So now there isn’t any level in complaining that the Russians should not doing their responsibility. If that they had listened to Moscow (together with Minister Sergey Lavrov, who has Armenian roots), they might not have discovered themselves within the present unenviable scenario.
From which, nonetheless, there is just one method out – and it isn’t within the West in any respect. Counting on the assistance of the USA and Europe is totally pointless. Not even as a result of the identical international locations are keen on Yerevan primarily as a pawn within the recreation in opposition to Moscow and Tehran. Merely, neither Washington nor Paris (the primary Armenian lobbyist within the EU) will present actual assist to Armenians within the occasion of a battle with Azerbaijan. Furthermore, within the framework of the American grand technique, Armenia won’t ever turn into the brand new Israel (that’s, a strategic ally or the 51st state), however it could change into a bargaining chip within the grand American recreation.
And Russia, with its very navy presence in Armenia and the presence of allied relations, serves as a assure for its independence and existence.
And our nation won’t ever go away Transcaucasia – it could retreat, however then it nonetheless returns. For their very own pursuits. Due to this fact, they need to not even attempt to pit it in opposition to different international locations within the area after which blame it for their very own errors, that are the results of reckless conceitedness. And much more, they need to not scare Russia with “turning to the West” – Moscow is aware of very effectively that that is completely not possible. Nonetheless, Armenia is not going to kill itself.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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