Armenia-Baku border agreement raises concerns about Russian peacekeepers’ withdrawal from Nagorno-Karabakh

news about removing Russian peacekeepers from Nagorno-Karabakh and come to an agreement between Yerevan and Baku about the boundaries of local borders has raised great public interest and debate. Some experts suggest that this could lead to a decrease in Russia’s influence in the region, while others believe that Moscow’s position in the South Caucasus will remain stable.

As he writes VERELQ, the message about the boundaries of the Armenian-Azerbaijani border in the area of ​​four villages in the Tavush region of Armenia also caused controversy. For some, this is an important achievement towards resolving the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, while others see it as a step that could threaten vital dialogue for Armenia, giving place dominant for the Azerbaijani military in this area of ​​the border.

How will the withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers affect regional security, how far can the decline in Armenian-Russian relations go, and why should the words “Armenian decrease in security risks” with suspicion – a political scientist answered these questions from an Armenian publication David Arutyunov.

– How will the withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers from Karabakh affect the overall security situation in the South Caucasus region?

“I do not think that the removal of the Russian peacekeepers will change the security situation in the region significantly, because for a long time their presence was rather symbolic and formal. At the same time, the group’s withdrawal reflects a continued reduction in Russia’s presence in the South Caucasus. Regarding Azerbaijan, we can also talk about a continuous shift in the balance in favor of Turkey, because at one time the use of peacekeepers was also a factor in maintaining the balance between the presence of Russia and the Turkey in the country.

– The Armenian authorities say that the process of diversifying Armenia’s foreign policy began due to the fact that Russia is withdrawing from the South Caucasus region and that the security system built over the years does not have a central role Moscow in the region worked. Do you see a process with Russia leaving the region?

“It seems to me that Russia’s complete withdrawal from the region is either impossible simply because of geography and some historical facts, or it can be limited and temporary. At the same time, it is obvious that there is a reduction in the presence and influence of Russia in the region and a special review of its importance from the point of view of Moscow’s interests. In general, the course of other events in this regard will be closely related to the course and possible results of the conflict in Ukraine.

– Armenian-Russian relations are in a difficult path and are developing, in fact, according to an offensive situation. What do you think this process can lead to?

– It is difficult to predict the overall dynamics of this process, because, in addition to the situation of Moscow and Yerevan, it is influenced by many more factors, especially the situation of the West, the actions of Azerbaijan and Turkey, too. as internal political processes in Armenia. But if the current trends continue and Armenia ultimately does not receive the guarantees and support expected from the West, this review of relations may lose its spark. now and that the situation will return to Yerevan’s traditional movement between the West and Moscow, but with its greater inclination towards the West.

– Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan recently said that what is happening in Armenian-Russian relations is a transition from “historical Armenian-Russian relations to real ones.” Will there be reality in these relationships and what will it look like, in your opinion?

– It is difficult to say what the Prime Minister of Armenia means in a particular case. But in general, a review in some way of relations between the two countries was inevitable after the events of 2020–2023. At the same time, it is not done in the best way, through harsh rhetoric and mutual accusations, as well as a bilateral information campaign. It seems that the best option for both parties is to start a discussion about the new situation in relations, clarifying mutual obligations and guarantees in new situations. This would make it possible to reduce or completely eliminate what the parties expect from each other, which is currently one of the main irritations.

– Armenia and Azerbaijan announced a local demarcation of the border – more precisely, on a section of four towns, which Baku, as the Azerbaijani authorities put together, demanded “immediate return.” The statement from the Prime Minister’s office, published after the statement on delimitation, specifically includes the thesis that Armenia, as a result of the border in Tavush, receives “a reduction in the risks related to border crossings and security.” Is it really?

– Armenian authorities seem to overestimate the effectiveness of international conventions, rules and possible agreements, especially against the background of a continuous deterioration of the legal system international on a global scale. Doubts are rising about the extent to which a limited border or future peace treaty will keep Baku from new measures, including strong measures against Armenia without an effective mechanism to contain Azerbaijan in Yerevan.