Arizona copper mine battle could influence US election

Native American opposition to Rio Tinto and BHP’s Resolution Copper mine could prove pivotal in the 2024 US presidential election in the battleground state of Arizona, highlighting tensions over how best to extract minerals critical to the energy transition.

If built, the mine would supply more than a quarter of U.S. copper demand and would be key to Washington’s efforts to gain ground on China as the world’s largest copper processor and consumer.

The United States imports nearly half the copper it needs, according to its Geological Survey, and its copper mine production has fallen 11 percent since 2021. There are only two smelters of the metal in the country.

The mine is located in a religious place of native groups

But the Resolution underground mine would open a massive crater that would destroy a religious site where Arizona’s San Carlos Apaches worship. The project has drawn strong opposition from all but one of the state’s 22 indigenous tribes, as well as the National Congress of American Indians.

A lawsuit was filed on Wednesday asking the U.S. Supreme Court to block Rio and BHP from accessing the land, which Congress and President Barack Obama approved in 2014, after it was added at the last minute to a must-pass military funding bill on the condition that an environmental report be released.

Factor electoral

President Donald Trump released that report in 2021, days before leaving office, a move that was reversed two months later by his successor, Joe Biden.

It is unclear whether the Supreme Court will take up the case and, if it does, how or when it might rule.

Whoever wins the U.S. election on Nov. 5 will be able to approve the mine or keep its development essentially frozen, a move Biden took after Arizona’s 400,000 Native Americans — nearly 5 percent of the state’s population — helped him and then-running mate Kamala Harris win the state.

In the 2024 presidential race, Republican Trump narrowly leads Democratic candidate Harris among Arizona registered voters in a Reuters/Ipsos poll released on August 29. Arizona is one of the few states likely to decide the election.

Native Americans have tended to vote Democratic in the past, but many tribes in the American Southwest have cited climate change and the economy as key issues for them this year.

The San Carlos Apache and other tribes are once again flexing their electoral muscle, pressuring Harris to block the mine if elected.

“We hope that Native votes will be the determining factor in Arizona,” said Wendsler Nosie, director of Apache Stronghold, a nonprofit group made up of San Carlos Apaches and conservationists. “All Native people are concerned about this issue, because this sacred space is the heart of who we are.”

The Harris and Trump campaigns did not respond to requests for comment.

Harris in 2020 told Arizona’s Native American tribes they would have a “seat at the table” if she and Biden were elected. San Carlos Apache then successfully appealed to Harris in 2021 to block the resolution, tribal officials told Reuters.

Harris has said little about critical minerals in the 2024 campaign, and aides have told Reuters she intends to be strategically ambiguous on energy-related issues.

Trump has said he will give the green light to mining projects

Trump has supported most mining projects and said he would greenlight the controversial Twin Metals Antofagasta mine in Minnesota “within minutes” of a second inauguration. Biden and Harris canceled the project in 2022.

Some members of Trump’s campaign have spoken out in favor of Resolution, though he has yet to speak publicly on the issue this election cycle.

Trump’s overwhelmingly pro-mining stance and Harris’ support for the Inflation Reduction Act and other climate-related policies have not gone unnoticed in the state, tribal activists say.

“Mobilizing the Native vote is very important in Arizona,” said Gunes Murat Tezcür, a political scientist at Arizona State University. The Resolution project “is going to be a big deal for the San Carlos Apaches.”