Domestic beef consumption would fall 8.7% year-on-year to 2,200,000 tons of bone-in beef (r/c/h) in 2024, which represents a decrease of 200 thousand tons compared to the previous year, while They project simultaneous declines in production and exports, according to a report from the Rosario Stock Exchange (BCR).
In this way, the stock exchange entity projected an average of 8% year-on-year declines in production and 6.1% in shipments abroad.
In the case of production, the report estimated a volume of 3,024,000 tons r/c/h for next year compared to 3,285,000 in 2023.
With the same trend, it projected a decrease in exports to 824,000 tons compared to 877,000 tons the previous year.
According to the BCR, the economic context of 2023 had a severe impact on the beef market.
One of the worst droughts in the history of Argentina
Along these lines, they contextualized that “the year 2023 will remain in the history of Argentina for having witnessed one of the worst droughts experienced by the country: grain production was reduced by nearly 40% year-on-year,” which generated “serious difficulties for the Argentine economy, given that agroindustrial chains contribute 1 of every 4 pesos collected by the National State, employ 1 of every 5 workers in the private sector, account for 2 of every 3 dollars that enter the country through exports and represent 20% of Argentine GDP.”
On the other hand, they highlighted that “as there was a shortage of pastures as a result of the lack of water, the agents of the livestock activity were forced to send a large number of heads to slaughter, resulting in high numbers of production and exports, as well as as in a recovery in consumption compared to the previous two years.”
Cattle slaughter in 2023
Along these lines, they specified that in the first 11 months of the year, 13.4 million head were slaughtered, 9.7% above the average of the last 5 years for the same period, while more than 800,000 tons (beef with bone equivalent), 23.6% above the average.
In addition, the BCR estimated that domestic consumption reached 2.2 million tons, that is, 2.4% more than the average of the last 5 years.
Regarding next year, on the other hand, the entity highlighted that by 2024 they estimate that beef consumption will represent the highest percentage of Argentine meat consumption.
Thus, domestic consumption is expected to be around 5.1 million tons next year, of which beef will account for 43% in 2024, followed by poultry at 42% and pork at 15%.
Furthermore, the BCR considered for 2024 that “sustaining the El Niño phenomenon would be favorable, in principle, for pastures and the possibility of making a transition towards a stock retention phase, and assuming this scenario, it is estimated that in the year In 2024, slaughter would present a decrease of 9% year-on-year, reaching levels close to 13.1 million head?
On the other hand, regarding demand, according to the report, it is projected that the year the exported volume of meat reaches a value of approximately US$ 2,645 million, contributed 90% by beef, 9% by poultry and 1% for pork, marking a drop of 4% year-on-year.
However, the so-called complementary meats – poultry and pork – could register increases in their indicators in 2024.
Thus, in the case of poultry meat, the BCR estimated a year-on-year increase of 2.8% in production to 2,353,000 tons; 1% in the case of consumption; and a positive variation of 31.6% in exports.
The pork sector would also register positive variations in all its indicators, since the entity projected an increase of 4.1% in production, 2.9% in consumption and 4.3% in exports.
2023-12-26 14:50:47
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