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For decades, a presidential election in Argentina has not attracted so much attention in Brazil. From Lula’s government to the political parties, from the business community and the countryside to the financial market, everyone gathered on Sunday, November 19. The result immediately became an eruption of concerns, except among the far-right followers of the unbalanced former president Jair Bolsonaro.
In my personal case, pure amazement.
I tell about my relationship with Argentina. I was there for the first time 55 and a half years ago. In 1972 I spent a three-week stint. And in April 1973, at the age of 24, I settled in Buenos Aires, from where I left in July 1976 for my second exile.
In those years I wrote for the now-defunct newspaper The opinionsheltered by Tomás Eloy Martínez, and from the beginning I joined the group of permanent collaborators of the magazine Crisis, created and directed by Eduardo Galeano. There was never another one like it.
For almost 20 years we have had an apartment in Palermo. Before the pandemic I spent long periods in my Buenos Aires refuge.
For all these reasons, I followed, with special concern, the voting in the second round in Argentina. And I confess my surprise and my horror.
If I did not have and do not have any sympathy for Sergio Masa, I feel panic for Javier Milei.
This is not a politician, but a walking aberration, tremendously dangerous.
I know well the problems facing that nation, but choosing suicide never seemed like a good solution to me.
His presence in the presidential chair not only means a danger for his country, but also for a good part of the region, starting with Mercosur.
His first statements and the announcement of some measures are astonishing. Between destroying ministries and privatizing even the air you breathe, what is seen is pure destruction.
He warned that he will suspend all public works, even those that are being carried out. “We don’t have money,” he explained. “Let private initiative take over them.”
Milei will not be able to fulfill even half of his electoral campaign promises. She does not have support in Congress to go that far.
You will not be able to “dollarize” the economy or close the Central Bank. For that to happen, the Constitution would have to change, which establishes both the national currency and the banking institution.
To interlocutors he announced that he will change the name of the currency. “The weight is worthless,” she said. He did not say how another name will modify that reality.
He won’t do everything he announced, but what he achieves will be devastating. He will eliminate very important ministries, in an unprecedented setback. It will eliminate subsidies for public transportation, water and electricity.
The oil company YPF and Aerolíneas Argentinas will be privatized.
And the relations with Brazil? Another enigma. It is good that Uruguay and Paraguay have right-wing presidents, but they are not unlimitedly unbalanced. Relations with Lula are normal.
During the election campaign, Milei said several times that Lula is a “thief,” “communist,” and “corrupt.” On the night of his victory, she did not hesitate to call Jair Bolsonaro and one of his sons, national deputy Eduardo.
What I see for Argentina – a country with which, I reiterate, I have maintained close ties for more than half a century and where I had some of the best friends of my life – is a future of horror and great confusion: that no one forgets the Peronism’s ability to gather crowds in immense street demonstrations. They will happen and make the country shake.
Milei knows this well and that is why he warned that he will not allow himself to be “blackmailed” by unions and social movements, and that he will maintain “law and order” in the streets of the country.
He said he will need six months to implement his projects. “It will be six months of hell before we get to heaven.”
With inflation around 143 percent, a currency that is worth three times the official exchange rate in the parallel exchange rate, with 40 percent living below the poverty line, does anyone believe that such a picture will be altered in six months?
On the contrary: economists, analysts and the financial market project a 2024 of full recession.
That disastrous scenario was essential for Milei’s victory. What was seen was an electorate radically irritated with the situation in the country.
Until now, a fog conceals what the weight of former right-wing president Mauricio Macri will be along with Milei. He exists in the sector of the economy; However, its size, weight and duration are not well known.
Another ally that Milei supported, the former militant of the leftist guerrilla Montoneros and now right-wing radical Patricia Bullrich, will be Minister of Security.
There is a lot of tension and bad expectations for Argentina.
There are plenty of indications that the country will face, starting December 10, a period of tragedy.
By Eric Nepomuceno
Source: La Jornada
The opinions expressed in this section are the responsibility of the author and do not necessarily represent the thoughts of the newspaper El Clarín
