In 2023, Argentina was the country that grew the most in meat exports (8% annually) compared to 2022, followed by Brazil (1%). Uruguay and Paraguay fell in volume. Uruguay leads in prices, with the highest values in the region.
Rosario, Santa Fe, Argentina | Rosgan | The entire field | Las Mercosur beef exports reached a new historical record of 3.38 million tons in 2023 product weight, after slightly exceeding the previous year’s mark of 3.35 million tons. The figure considers the total exported by the four main partners of the bloc: Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay not even including Bolivia, recently incorporated as the bloc’s fifth full partner, after having acted as an associate member since 2015.
Well, considering the four original partners, Argentina was the origin that registered the greatest growth in volume during the last yearby contributing 683,092 tons of product weight, that is, about 50,000 more than in 2022. This makes our country the only Mercosur origin to increase its participation in regional shipments by growing close to a 8% annuallyfollowed by Brazil showing much more moderate growth (1%) Unlike Uruguay and Paraguay that fell in volume in the last year shipped around 5% annually.
In 2023, Argentina will ship 683,092 tons -or 966,123 bone-in beef equivalent- contributed 20% of the block’s total exports1 point more than in 2022. For its part, Brazil remained practically unchanged, making up 59% of total exports with just over 2 million tons exported, which become about 3 million, taken to the same equivalent of bone-in beef. While Uruguay and Paraguay, with 371,303 and 320,476 tons of product weight exported, respectively, lose less than one share point.
On the other hand of this export performance, The average value obtained for each ton shipped from Mercosur was almost 20% lower than that registered in 2022.generating a Total turnover of US$ 15.9 billion, about US$ 3.73 billion less than those obtained a year ago despite having achieved sales for record amounts.
Indeed, Argentina It is the one that presents the greatest dichotomy in this export performance. Being the origin that grew the most in export volume within the block, it is at the same time the one that experienced the greatest drop in prices.. From January to December 2023, the average value of Argentine beef exports was US$ 4,066 per ton, this is a 25.6% lower than that obtained in 2022, and the lowest record within the block.
Even in a context of falling international prices, Paraguay was the origin of the region that fell the least obtaining US$ 4,773 per ton, just 7.1% less than in 2022, thus placing it slightly above the average values achieved by Brazil (US$ 4,734) who, like Argentina, ends up falling more than 20 percentage points.
Uruguay continues to lead the blockwho despite registering a drop of 15.7% annually, manages to maintain an average value per exported ton of US$ 5,656, almost US$ 1,000 above the average for the region and almost 40 percentage points above the values achieved by Argentina.
At this point, a no minor item that significantly affects the average value of the ton exported by Argentina is the inclusion as of 2020 of “bones with meat”, items that represent approximately 12% of Argentina’s total shipments and that , due to their low commercial value, considerably depress prices with respect to the general averages of the region.
CHINA DEPRESSED VALUES DURING 2023 BY 21% YEARLY.
However, if we limit the analysis to the last year, we clearly observe that The three origins with the greatest drop in values in 2023 are precisely the ones with the greatest participation in the Chinese market.. Market that, beyond sustaining a solid demand for beef imports, during the last cycle managed to depress purchase values by 21% annually.
Indeed, the exposure that the bloc presents to the Chinese market is very high, especially in the case of Argentina, where 79% of shipments last year had that destination, against 60% and 55% in the case of Brazil and Uruguay, respectively.
Likewise, analyzed from the destination point of view, China’s exposure to or dependence on purchases from Mercosur is equally high. In 2023, the region as a whole supplied 72% of the 2.7 million tons imported. Of that total, according to data extracted from the same Chinese Customs Administration, Brazil contributed 43%, Argentina 19% and Uruguay 10%. The case of Paraguay is different, which, due to its diplomatic relations with Taiwan, still has not established trade agreements with the Asian giant.
WHAT’S COMING IN 2024.
Looking ahead to the current cycle, despite the lower economic growth expected for the country, the latest projections published by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) show for 2024 a slight improvement in China’s external sourcing need. In numbers, the agency projects beef imports of 3.55 million tons, practically unchanged compared to the historical peak registered in 2023.
However, even projecting a considerable increase in production, which according to the organization would reach 7.7 million tons – 200,000 more than in 2023 – China is limited in supplying both the quantity and quality of meat for the currently projected growing consumption. by more than 11.2 billion tons annually.
But beyond the volumes that China continues to carry, from now on The biggest challenge will be to start introducing cuts of higher commercial value to this market.especially in the case of our country, which dumps low-value cuts into this market, leaving aside the enormous potential that this market offers for higher quality products.
Until then, despite the phenomenal growth that China experienced in import volume, it was able to consolidate a very strong strategy in its pricing policy, by rapidly expanding its list of suppliers, with a greater number of enabled plants, which allowed it to move more and more. with greater flexibility when negotiating purchase values.
However, in the case of a market of 1.4 billion consumers, where in the last 10 years more than half of the population began to live in large urban centers, as the average income continues to grow, the possibility of developing market niches with greater added value continues to position China as an extremely attractive market that no global meat supplier wants to ignore.
2024-01-23 04:29:57
#Rosgan #analysis #Mercosur #closes #record #beef #shipments #declining #values #Entire #Field
