August 25, 2022
image source,AFP
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South Korea’s birth rate drops again
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In recent years, the danger and impact of China’s low fertility rate and demographic crisis has become a topic of great concern, but so has South Korea, whose per capita income and economic development exceed those of China’s. China is facing a huge demographic crisis. most people may not know much.
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According to data from Statistics Korea, the total fertility rate in South Korea in 2021 will decrease by 3.4% year-on-year and the actual birth rate will be 0.81, the lowest value from relevant statistics and the sixth consecutive decline. .
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The number of newborns in South Korea fell 4.3% year-over-year to 260,600, which also set a new all-time low. By comparison, the average birth rate in some of the world’s most advanced economies is still 1.6, well above that of South Korea.
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South Korea began annual birth statistics in 1970, when the number of births exceeded 1 million each year.
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However, after entering the 21st century, the number of births in South Korea dropped dramatically, dropping below 600,000 in 2001, below 500,000 in 2002, less than 400,000 in 2017, and further down to less than 300,000 in 2020.
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Negative pressure of population growth
To maintain the same size of the total population of a country, each couple should have at least two children, so that the population can be leveled without the need for immigration.
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According to the United Nations definition, the total fertility rate refers to the average number of children born per woman of childbearing age and a total fertility rate of 2.1 is the fundamental condition for maintaining intergenerational turnover and population stability.
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According to statistics from the International Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), the fertility rate of economically developed countries has decreased significantly over the past 60 years.
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But the trend is particularly pronounced in South Korea. Household sizes in South Korea have shrunk dramatically over the course of a few generations. In the 1970s, South Korean women had an average of four children.
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South Korea is now in last place for TFR among the 38 OECD countries and is the only country with a TFR of less than 1.
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In 2020, South Korea caused widespread shock when it first experienced negative population growth where the number of deaths exceeded the number of births.
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A country’s population decline can exert enormous pressure. In addition to the growing pressure on public spending as the demand for health care and pensions increases, the decline in the youth population will also lead to labor shortages, affecting the economy.
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According to the United Nations and the World Bank, South Korea is the fastest aging country among economies with a per capita GDP of over $ 30,000. Under the current downward trend, South Korea’s population will drop 53% from current levels to 24 million by 2100.
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The Bank of Korea previously warned that South Korea’s economy runs the risk of prolonged stagnation as its population ages and productivity slows.
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Why not give birth?
Analysis by BBC correspondent Jean Mackenzie in Seoul, South Korea:
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A demographic crisis is brewing. If South Korea’s population continues to shrink, there will not be enough manpower to develop the economy, take care of the aging population and join the military.
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Politicians have known for years that this situation is imminent, but they have not been able to cope with the demographic decline. The government has poured out billions of dollars trying to persuade people to have more children, to no avail, and it’s not clear why the encouragement doesn’t work.
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Money is certainly a factor. Raising children in South Korea is expensive and many young people struggle with the astronomical costs of housing.
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Another factor concerns the issue of equal opportunities.
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Women in South Korea have a higher education but are far from being treated equally in the workplace. South Korea has the highest gender pay gap of any other wealthy country.
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In Korea, where most of the housework and childcare are still done by women, it is common for women to stop working or stagnate after giving birth.
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Basically, many women in South Korea are still forced to choose between career and family. More and more women have decided they don’t want to sacrifice their careers to have children.
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As one woman told me: “We are going out of business, we are not having children.”
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international issues
According to official data from various countries, many countries with relatively high levels of economic development in the world have experienced varying degrees of negative population growth. For example, Japan in East Asia and Sweden, Denmark, Germany and other European countries are facing similar situations.
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The fertility rates of the aforementioned countries were reported to have dropped below 2.1. For example, the latest World Bank statistics show that the fertility rates of Japan, Sweden and Denmark are 1.3, 1.7 and 1.7, respectively.
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According to the “World Population Prospects 2022” report published by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, more countries will face the trend of population decline in the future.
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However, the population of some parts of the world is still increasing.
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Over the next 30 years, more than half of the population increase will occur in eight countries, mainly in Asia and Africa: the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines and Tanzania.
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