– The time has come to end Russia’s war against Ukraine, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said recently in his G20 summit speech.
No one is yet at the negotiating table.
But are the parties getting there? Many are now talking about the end of the war.
– Internationally, there is a lot on the agenda regarding negotiations right now. Too much for it to be accidental, says Janne Haaland Matlary. She is a professor of international politics at UiO and at the Norwegian Defense Staff School.
The United States decides
Matlary was one of four researchers who met at the University of Oslo (UiO) this week to discuss how to end the war in Ukraine.
All four agreed that it is not easy to say what it will take to bring the parties together around the negotiating table.
– This is a much more difficult situation than any other that I know of when it comes to finding a compromise, said Matlary.
Moreover, it is not Ukraine that decides, he believes.
– It’s the United States. The weapons used in Ukraine are mainly financed by the Americans, although the EU also provides support.
– Without arms deliveries at the rate we have seen so far, Ukraine is unable to continue fighting.
How do you end a war? Janne Haaland Matlary, Håkon Lunde Saxi, Øyvind Østerud and Tormod Heier met for a debate on this topic at the University of Oslo. Photo: Siw Ellen Jakobsen
The fear of nuclear weapons
Matlary stressed during the meeting that the Biden administration has stopped talking about Ukraine’s victory in this war.
One factor behind this may be a fear of nuclear weapons, she says.
– Americans are starting to get scared by these threats.
Øyvind Østerud, professor of political science at the UiO, recalled that Russia is the largest nuclear power in the world. If the Russians are pushed into a corner, we don’t know what might happen.
Østerud believes Russia can detonate a nuclear bomb outside the war zone, without killing anyone. Just to prove that they are capable of this.
– What does the Western world do then?
– If they are not discouraged, but continue with the same pressure on Russia, then it is likely that the Russians will use tactical battlefield weapons. These can be anything from relatively small weapons up to the size of the Hiroshima bomb.
– This is an extremely dangerous situation, Østerud added.
Is Putin Breaking the Nuclear Weapons Taboo?
It is precisely the fear of nuclear weapons that could now make more people think of sitting around a negotiating table.
Matlary believes that, on the one hand, Vladimir Putin will lose more than he can gain by breaking the taboo on nuclear weapons.
If he uses nuclear weapons, he risks becoming a political pariah. Both for China, India and other countries.
– But on the other hand, if you threaten and argue with them and nothing ever happens, most people will say that these are just empty threats.
Pigeons and falcons in Europe
Tormod Heier, a professor at the Norwegian Defense Academy, believes that with the use of nuclear weapons the race for Russia is over.
So many of the countries that are now sitting on the fence and have not taken sides in this war will distance themselves from Putin and the Russians.
During the meeting, Heier also stressed that a division is developing in European politics between what he calls the “doves” and the “hawks”.
– I think the hawks are eager to put pressure on Russia as much as possible. The pigeons are a little more afraid of what will happen if we push the Russians too hard.
Russia also fears nuclear weapons
Håkon Lunde Saxi, associate professor at the University of Defense, stressed during the meeting how the Biden administration in the United States and NATO has always been committed to avoiding a direct confrontation with Russia. He believes both would rather be willing to sacrifice Ukraine than go to war against Russia.
This would probably look very different if the Russians didn’t have nuclear weapons, he believes.
But the United States and NATO also have nuclear weapons. They have a deterrent effect on Russia and make it more difficult for Russians to take action against Western countries.
– The Americans allegedly told Russia that if they use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, the West will intervene militarily and attack Russian forces there.
If we are somewhat optimistic, it seems likely that nuclear weapons will not be used. Because nobody cares.
But we should certainly be afraid of it, Saxi warned and reminded this:
– We have consistently underestimated Russia’s willingness to take risks.
A war of attrition
Political science professor Øyvind Østerud cannot imagine how the war in Ukraine could end peacefully.
The distrust between the parties is so infinitely deep.
– It’s hard to imagine Ukraine returning to the demand that Russia get nothing.
– It is also difficult to imagine that Russia will capitulate unconditionally.
Østerud therefore does not believe that either side can win this war.
– Russia has a lot to do. They can mobilize more soldiers. They can tighten the belt at the waist more than they have done so far. I don’t think they will accept a major defeat.
– At the same time, Ukraine has a huge will to resist. They have sacrificed a lot. So there will be many who will give nothing at all. They have already sacrificed everything.
Together, this means we are already well into what is being called a war of attrition.
Østerud warns that the war in Ukraine could add to the series of protracted wars that have been going on for 20 years, wars in the Middle East, in Afghanistan and in Africa’s Sahel region.
Harsh winter ahead
The vulnerable spot in a war of attrition in Ukraine will be the support Ukrainians will receive from the Western world. And how much Western opposition there will be to getting involved in the war.
Øyvind Østerud reminded us that we are facing a tough winter in Europe.
Many people in the West know firsthand about expensive times and inflation. Recently there have been large demonstrations against the war in Ukraine in different places in Europe. Politicians of the far right and left of the two political parties in the United States are also against participating in a protracted war.
– Resistance in both Europe and the US could grow, Østerud warned.
This article was first published on Forskning. no.
