However, it is not just a matter of strength. “Terrain usually works in favor of the defending party,” says Deen. “That advantage has so far mainly been on the side of Ukraine. The moment they launch a large-scale counterattack, it shifts to the Russians.” Greater losses of people and equipment are inevitable for Ukraine, says Deen. “Then high morale is harder to maintain.”
De Kruif considers a large-scale counter-offensive unlikely for the time being. “They simply don’t have the manpower,” he says. “I don’t rule out small local counter-offensives, but I don’t see large-scale land reconquest in the coming months, or even years.”
But Osinga is less sure of that. “It is now mainly an artillery battle,” he says. “Where the Ukrainians see opportunities, they make strides. And a counter-offensive has several faces, not just that of hundreds of tanks rolling across the fields. Also damaging the Russian defense line with artillery, and attacking very carefully with small ground troops, can be effective.”
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