After the battles in Parliament over same-sex couples and non-state universities, the parties are preparing to take their positions at the starting point of the race for the European elections. In the June polls, it will be the first fund of the political period after the national elections that had as a key feature the adventures and the split of SYRIZA which, possibly, will lead to a new political geography.
The hard numbers of the government
The consecutive photos of the moment, the polls do not leave much room for bets. The political dominance of Kyriakos Mitsotakis is obvious. However, in Megaros Maximos they know that the road to the polls will not be an easy walk. The government looks unbeatable when compared to the opposition. This is one aspect of reading polls. The other is when the government is rated for its policy, for its performance in the mission of dealing with the problems of the citizens. It remains there, to say the least. The numbers speak for themselves. In the latest poll by Metron Analysis, 60% of respondents believe that the country is moving in the wrong direction. The government’s policies leave negative impressions on the fronts of Education (65%) dealing with punctuality (72%) and crime (73%). It is also noteworthy that 49% say they have negative impressions of the government’s performance in the matter of protecting individual rights.
The wounds for the government do not stop here. The civil marriage equality bill caused internal wounds and alienated traditional party voters. The Education front causes difficulties in the relationship of Megaros Maximos with difficult publics. Yes, the majority is in favor of non-state universities, but the majority in the 17-27 age group is against. Students as well as the unemployed form a front of disagreement that does not go unnoticed by the staff of the Megaros Maximos. The hard numbers for the government don’t stop there. In the biggest headache, precisely, seven out of ten citizens estimate that the government took less support measures than the state of the economy allows. But there is beyond the discomfort that is reflected in all the previous numbers and one more that reflects the mistrust of the society towards the government. Over 70% of citizens believe that no light will be shed on the tragedy of Tempe.
What does all this mean? That the Maximus Palace has every reason to fear a government disapproval. To this concern should be added the laxity of voting in the European elections and two other parameters which, however, concern the political system as a whole. Interest in the June showdown (as shown by the findings of the Metron Analysis poll) remains at low levels, while about 40% of respondents are not sure about their vote.
The government has set the bar in the zone of 34%, the percentage it received in the previous elections. Almost all polls, in the vote estimate, show her in the realm of 35%. But the reactions are piling up and they are big. And the fluidity of the electorate also leaves room for (unpleasant) surprises.
Who will win the SYRIZA-PaSoK derby?
“PaSoK has a great rally, it remains the second party in vote estimation. SYRIZA retreats but after the conference, Kasselakis’ profile has been boosted. We don’t know how this will be reflected in the next measurements.” This observation by an experienced analyst captures the difficult equation of the second position. The forecasts, according to the opinion polls, are in favor of PaSoK. The party of Nikos Androulakis appears in all measurements with percentages higher than those of SYRIZA. If he finally succeeds in taking second place, we will have, at the ballot box, a reversal of the correlations in the space of the center-left, after 12 years.
But how standard can the derby for second place be played? Optimists appear in Harilaou Trikoupi. They estimate, with certainty, that PaSoK will occupy the second place with a percentage that will move in the zone of 15%. Then, claim the staff of Harilaou Trikoupis, there will be the significant rise which the base and its leadership would already expect. The element that worries experienced party officials is that despite showing a great rally and SYRIZA, according to the expression of Nikos Androulakis, is in a spiral, it does not seem to be reaping the benefits that would make it an unshakable favorite for second place. In fact, in the latest measurements, it shows an “alarming stagnation”.
Can SYRIZA turn the tide? In Koumoundourou they want to see that in the majority of the measurements the difference with PaSoK is “at the limits of statistical error”, it has not obtained a “clear difference”. They estimate that the period of great turmoil in SYRIZA has passed, at least until the polls. This means there may be an end to the polling attrition. And, finally, they underline that Stefanos Kasselakis, freed, at least temporarily, from the constant intra-party controversy “will pick up speed”. If this leads to an increase in the rally of SYRIZA, which in most opinion polls is in the realm of 53%, “then everything is at stake” Of course, the scenario is not to get, as Mr. Kasselakis states, a percentage close to 20% but not to lose the second position.
To the right of the right
A question mark and possibly a source of surprises are the percentages that the small parties to the right of the ND will collect. It is remarkable the rise of the Greek Solution, which in some measurements moves in the realm of 10%. It is also noteworthy that the party of Mr. Velopoulos has inputs not only from the ND but also from PaSoK and SYRIZA. If the dynamics that it shows have continued then it is not excluded that it will achieve percentages that will be discussed.
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