Currently, in Lithuania, similarly to Latvia, the retirement age is being gradually increased with the aim of reaching the age of 65. It is planned that in Lithuania it will take place a year later than in Latvia, namely in 2026. In that case, where did the idea of raising the retirement age to 72 years by 2040, which is currently the subject of political debate in Lithuania, come from?
The European Commission is confusing the public
It turns out that back in January 2021, the European Commission (EC) came up with another “Green paper” (“Green paper”) – that is, a sketch of a sector’s policy to be submitted for public consultation, in order to then evaluate its results and possibly end up to any specific policy changes. This time it would be dedicated to aging, the quality of life of seniors and the pension system. The official title of the document is “On Aging. Promoting intergenerational solidarity and mutual responsibility’. The Covid pandemic largely overshadowed this and similar initiatives that were not relevant at the time, and in Latvia, outside of the circle of professionals and relevant non-governmental organizations, the document remained almost unnoticed.
The EC document is formally dedicated to starting a debate on how to fully use the potential of the rather hopelessly aging European society and to find the necessary policy solutions. It is not only about raising the retirement age, but about a whole range of measures, including improving the health and quality of life of senior citizens, their care, also labor migration, etc. However, as EC officials acknowledge in the document, “a longer working life is one of the most important solutions to this situation.”
And then there are some more specific things that have quite logically caused ripples in Lithuanian society.
According to the latest Eurostat population forecast, the EU’s age dependency ratio (the difference between the number of people aged 64 and over and the number of people aged 20-64) in 2040 would remain at the same level as in 2020 only if the working life span were extended to the age of 70. However, there are significant differences between Member States, reflecting different challenges across Europe.
In order to keep the national age dependency ratio in 2024 unchanged compared to 2020, the projections show that Malta, Hungary and Sweden would need to increase the working life expectancy to 68 years, while Lithuania and Luxembourg would need to increase it to 70 years.
Already in 2019, the age dependency ratio significantly differed – from 22 in Luxembourg to 39 in Italy and 38 in Finland, according to the EC “Green Book”.
The rulers of Lithuania were forced to straighten up
It is clear from the context that Lithuania entered the “Green Book” as an illustrative example. Latvia could just as well be there with a very similar demographic situation. But it is also clear that this type of EC “papers” can lie on the shelf for years if they do not have political support, or on the contrary – pulled out and presented as the truth in the last instance, if they have such support. Here, it should be added right away that according to the current legislation, the retirement age is a matter of competence of the member states; EC officials can only recommend or not recommend something here.
At the same time, naming the unfortunate number of 72 years together with the name of Lithuania has become a cause of serious concern in our neighboring country. As emphasized, for example, by the advisor of the Lithuanian president Gitanas Nausėdas, Irēna Segalovićiene, it is expected that only in 2030, Lithuania will reach an average life expectancy of 65 years.
“It is inadequate to consider increasing the retirement age by seven years in such a situation. The pension system cannot be built without taking into account the health status of seniors,” the representative of the Lithuanian president admits, reports the agency “bns.lt”.
Representatives of the Lithuanian government have also rushed to deny any plans to raise the retirement age above the currently planned 65 years.
“This recommendation from the EC is not strictly about raising the retirement age, but rather about how to create favorable conditions for people who want and are able to stay at work until this age,” Chairman of the Seimas Social Affairs Commission Mindaugs Linge (“Fatherland Union” – Lithuanian Christians Democrats) admitted to the Lithuanian public media portal “lrt.lt”.
On the other hand, Inga Buškūte, head of the Pensions Department of the Ministry of Welfare of Lithuania, emphasized to “lrt.lt” that there is currently no discussion in Lithuania about increasing the retirement age above the already planned one. At the same time, she acknowledged that international organizations such as the OECD and the EC recommend postponing people’s retirement into the future. “When the time comes for discussions, they will be public,” said I. Buškūte.
“Increasing the retirement age, I would say, is still too theoretical a discussion, it appeared when those in power tried to discuss, initiate this discussion two years ago. In politics, raising the retirement age is a very difficult topic, close to political suicide. And on the other hand, we have very objective indicators against this promotion, such as healthy life expectancy, where we are far behind in Europe. If, for example, in Sweden it is 73 years on average, then in Lithuania we currently do not even reach 60 years of healthy life,” Lins Kukuraitis, an opposition member of the Seimas from the Democratic Union “Par Lietuva”, summed up for the “respublika.lt” portal.
