There was an historic drought in Brazil at the beginning of the year, now it is freezing. Largest coffee producer in the world? That could mean the end of the country, says agricultural economist Christian Bunn.
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The strongest frosts since 1994 hit the Brazilian coffee industry hard. It is becoming apparent that at least the next two Arabica harvests in the country will be significantly worse than expected. Around 70 percent of Arabica coffee comes from Brazil. Around 40 percent of this was grown in the Minas Gerais region in 2020. The producer Minsul assumes that between 20 and 30 percent of the harvest in 2021 will be affected by frost damage.
Overall, around ten percent of the total Brazilian cultivation area is affected, says agricultural economist Christian Bunn. Ultimately, consumers will not notice much of this, he suspects. The question is rather whether Brazil will remain the largest coffee producer in the long term.
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“In Brazil the big question will be whether this country will still be the largest producer in the future.”
Christian Bunn, agricultural economist, International Center for Tropical Agricultural Research Cali in Colombia and University of Göttingen
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The agricultural economist points out that coffee cultivation in Colombia can move to high altitudes – unlike in Brazil. In the east of the African continent in Kenya and Uganda, for example, locations are favorable for growing coffee. These frost phenomena have nothing to do with climate change, says Christian Bunn. The drought in Brazil, on the other hand, the low rainfall in Brazil.
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“The frost is not normal. At the same time, it is difficult to say whether this is a consequence of climate change. It is difficult to classify.”
Christian Bunn, agricultural economist, International Center for Tropical Agricultural Research Cali in Colombia and University of Göttingen
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In coffee cultivation there are only a few means of combating drought, says Christian Bunn. He names ground cover plants, shade trees and irrigation. However, these measures also have their limits.
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“They are trying to compensate for these climate changes a little through irrigation, for example through more sustainable cultivation with ground-covering plants.”
Christian Bunn, agricultural economist, International Center for Tropical Agricultural Research Cali in Colombia and University of Göttingen
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the Coffee prices in New York reached a value of more than two dollars per pound – for the first time since 2014. This price peak was reached on July 26th, 2021. The price of Arabica beans has been rising since the beginning of 2021 – at least according to the average prices of the International Coffee Organization. This price trend actually has a Low point in May 2019 used.
The sales prices for already roasted coffee in Germany are subject to relatively strong fluctuations. Between 1990 and 2019 recorded the International Coffee Organization prices between 5.65 US dollars per pound in 2013 and 2.63 in 2001. Beyond industrially produced coffee, only high-quality, sustainably grown coffee is actually worthwhile for smallholders, says Christian Bunn.
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“We advise buying good quality coffee, maybe directly traded coffee or certified coffee.”
Christian Bunn, agricultural economist, International Center for Tropical Agricultural Research Cali in Colombia and University of Göttingen
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