/ world today news/ The current events in Ukraine are only a part of a huge geopolitical mosaic, which reflects the current (often completely unnoticed by the average observer) tectonic processes. Often the events that take place in quiet high offices are far more significant than the roar of rockets and artillery.
Last Friday, March 18, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad arrived in the UAE capital.
The acting head of the Arab Republic was met by Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, who holds three key positions at the same time. Al Maktoum simultaneously performs the functions of vice president, prime minister and defense minister, but much more interesting facts are hidden behind the backs of such high office chairs. The Emir of Dubai, and this is another position of Sheikh Mohammed, enjoys well-deserved fame in his homeland as a person who stands at the beginning and in every way contributes to the development of transnational projects in the UAE, attracting investments to the country. For example, he is credited with the creation of the Emirates airline, the port operator DP World, which in just six years of its establishment has become the world’s third largest operator of international seaports. The construction of the world-famous skyscraper “Burj Khalifa” also did not pass without the participation of Al Maktoum.
We allowed ourselves to take the time to list the merits of the host so that the reader realizes the importance of what is happening, as well as the magnitude of the events, including those that are expected only for now, which we will talk about below.
Assad’s visit to the UAE is historic.
There have been no high-level meetings between Syrians and UAE officials since 2011, when mass protests fueled by outsiders erupted in the SAR and later turned into a protracted bloody civil conflict. After the meeting, Sheikh Maktoum said that the Emirates are extremely interested in the restoration of normal relations between the two Arab countries, welcome the establishment of peace and will recommend the return of Syria to the League of Arab States, from which it was excluded in the same 2011, when the UAE and other allies of the United States in the Middle East, while not directly intervening, did not oppose attempts to oust Assad.
It is extremely symptomatic that the US State Department almost immediately condemned this meeting – and Washington’s nervousness is more than understandable.
Two weeks ago, that is, a week after the start of the special operation, the UAE and Saudi Arabia simultaneously refused the US to increase oil production. We recall that the sanctions war against Russia, unleashed by the Biden administration, led to record inflation and a rise in fuel prices in the States themselves.
Here it is necessary to note not even the fact of the refusal, but its form. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and his UAE counterpart Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed refused to speak to Joe Biden even on the phone. In the diplomatic world, where protocol is strictly followed and representatives of even warring countries communicate with strict politeness and shake hands when meeting, this is tantamount to a public slap in the face.
The White House’s urgent attempts to stop the growing discontent of the population are completely understandable, as are not surprising the countries that Joe Biden tried to turn to for help.
Under his leadership is the most automobile country on the planet, where only officially there are 284 million cars for 329 million people. And record gas prices of four or five dollars a gallon produced a completely expected result. Paid pollsters are hard at work painting Biden and the Democratic Party with a 42 percent level of popular support. At the same time, an independent poll conducted by the American television channel CNN shows that Biden is the president with the lowest approval rating in history. The policy and results of the work of the current head of state are approved by only 36 percent of those surveyed.
The refusal of the Saudis and the Emirati representatives says, first, that they are heavily and already quite clearly burdened by the role of “America’s reserve gas tank”. It is precisely such a scheme of interstate relations that was largely voluntarily-coerced by Washington on the Arabs in exchange for promises of comprehensive military assistance and protection. The complete failure of the US operation in Afghanistan, the inability to resolve the conflict in Yemen and the current precedent, when Washington pumped Kiev with weapons against Russia for years, but abandoned it at a critical moment, apparently changed the mood among the oil-rich Arabs.
Second, the demonstrative demarche of Saudi Arabia and the UAE shows that the levers of the world oil market are slipping out of America’s hands, when the states could actually command the leading producers and exporters. The US is currently the largest oil producer in the world: at 18.6 million barrels per day, it owns 20 percent of global production. However, they are immediately followed by Saudi Arabia (12 percent) and Russia (11 percent), with the United Arab Emirates and Iran in seventh and ninth place respectively. Neither Dubai nor Abu Dhabi is willing to sacrifice relations within the OPEC and OPEC+ cartels, which collectively control half of the world’s oil production and exports, to save Biden’s approval ratings.
The position of the Arabs is completely logical and justified. During the first wave of COVID-19, when the usual supply chains collapsed and energy prices began to shake, Saudi Arabia, according to various estimates, suffered direct losses of 20-25 billion dollars.
Against the background of everything said above, it is impossible not to note one more extremely important signal.
Just a week ago, there were Saudi-Chinese talks in which, if we put aside the verbal shell, the main topic was the avoidance of dollar payments in oil transactions. According to the latest data, the Saudis produce 11 million barrels of oil per day, a quarter of which goes to China. At the same time, they make payments (as well as 75 percent of all other black gold transactions) in dollars. To denote this phenomenon, a corresponding term was coined a long time ago: “petrodollar”.
A few more numbers.
The volume of annual oil trade is estimated at 14 trillion dollars, and the world’s foreign exchange reserves are at a volume of eight trillion, 7.1 of which are accounted for by the US currency. The euro has 2.5 trillion, the British pound has 0.6 trillion, and the Chinese yuan is content with a modest 0.2 trillion. Separation from the petrodollar would cause the yuan to skyrocket in importance, as well as an equally rapid increase in its money supply. Simply put, the entire world will no longer work to maintain the value and importance of the US currency, and the current almost uncontrolled printing of US notes will lead to what it was supposed to do – hyperinflation. Down the chain, this will lead to a decline in the standard of living, an increase in the prices of key categories of goods, fuels, energy and services.
In order not to create the wrong impression, let’s make a reservation that oil producers go not only to Beijing. In the last month, the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry was able to meet with the head of the IAEA and with his counterpart from Qatar, another key player in the hydrocarbon market. At the same time, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu visited Damascus and held a personal meeting with Bashar Assad, which started our conversation today. Until the ill-fated 2011, Syria produced half a million barrels of oil a day, and current events suggest that its main industry could count on comprehensive aid.
The events in Ukraine are just an echo of global processes. China takes a position of apparent pro-Russian neutrality, and the demarche of the Arab oil producers suggests that it is not only Moscow and Beijing who are tired of a unipolar world with total American dictate. And that’s putting it mildly.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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