Driven by the steady flow of orders from its three major customers, including Apple, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), and NVIDIA, TSMC (2330) has not only jumped on the recovery train of the consumer product market, but has also been riding the wave of AI/high-speed computing (HPC). Seizing the opportunity, operations in the first quarter of next year are expected to be strong during the off-season. Legal entities estimate that the quarter-on-quarter decrease will only be in the mid-single digits (6% to 8%). Single-quarter revenue in NT$ may exceed NT$570 billion, challenging the previous record. Season 1 of Mong.
Regarding the financial data estimated by the legal person, TSMC responded that the company usually comments on the business outlook for the current year at its legal meeting in January every year.
The legal person is optimistic that TSMC is almost certain to survive the off-season in the first quarter of next year. The main driving force is that the 5nm family capacity utilization rate remains high and the revenue contribution of 3nm, especially the major customer Apple, has won TSMC’s 3nm first batch. The stable increase in batch production capacity will help the average product price (ASP) next year to remain the same as in the fourth quarter of this year.
Overall, TSMC’s average product prices are expected to decrease by only 0.05% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter of next year, which means that even if demand for other mature processes is sluggish, its advanced process revenue and profits will provide strong support for the traditional off-season.
On the other hand, the demand for high-speed computing continues, and new application products are added, which will also bring warmth to TSMC during the traditional off-season in the first quarter of next year. The industry speculates that Huida has new stocking requirements for its high-end products and L20/H20 products. In particular, in order to achieve computing power efficiency for the HGX H20 version using the Hopper architecture, terminal procurement must prepare five times the amount and connect it in series. Effectively driving demand, the relevant volume will expand before the Lunar New Year next year.
In addition, Supermicro CEO Lisa Su previously announced in a conference call with investors that its new AI chip “MI300” series and other data center GPUs will generate more than US$2 billion in revenue next year, and related chips will also be produced by TSMC.
The industry is optimistic that after adjustments, AMD’s MI300X series is expected to begin small-volume shipments with system partners as scheduled this year. With abundant advanced packaging production capacity, AMD’s related AI/HPC chip market share will grow by double digits next year. Synchronous belt boom TSMC.
Even though TSMC has not yet released its outlook for the first quarter of next year, legal persons are optimistic that with the steady flow of orders from its three major customers including Apple, Advanced Micro Devices, and Huida, TSMC’s US dollar revenue in the first quarter of next year is estimated to only decrease by 6% to 8% quarter-on-quarter. Revenue in a single quarter can exceed US$18 billion, reaching more than NT$570 billion.
If the exchange rate remains favorable, TSMC’s revenue converted from U.S. dollars to New Taiwan dollars has a chance to narrow its quarterly decline, and both U.S. dollar and New Taiwan dollar revenue are expected to be the strongest first quarter in history, and its performance in 2024 is expected to increase quarter by quarter.
Zhang Zhongmou is back
APEC Taiwan leader representative and TSMC founder Chang Chung-mou (right) and his wife Chang Shu-fen (left) returned to Taiwan yesterday after completing their trip to the APEC Economic Leaders’ Meeting.
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2023-11-19 22:48:00
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