The number of apartments for sale is growing. In March 2022, 53 percent more new ads were published than in December last year, according to a report by Expander and Rentier.io. In most of the analyzed cities, real estate prices are rising, but at the same time the creditworthiness has significantly decreased.
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The authors of the report noted a significant increase in the number of flat sale announcements. “In March, we recorded 106,925 active apartment sales offers, of which 42,556 were newly added offers. There were as many as 53% more of these new offers than in December 2021, when the downward trend observed in the second half of last year ended” – they indicated .
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In their opinion, the March number of advertisements is not yet dangerously high, as in March 2021 the number of active advertisements was 135,848, which means that it was higher than today. “However, it is worth observing this indicator, because it allows you to observe problems on the market much faster than the price level, which is only lowered after several months of unsuccessful sales attempts” – stated the authors of the report.
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Apartments for sale – offer prices
As emphasized, the number of sale announcements has not resulted in significant price drops so far. In 11 of the 17 examined cities, prices were still rising, in the case of six, the rates were lower than a month earlier. Median prices per square meter fell the most in Gdynia – by 3.5 percent. and Poznań – by 2.4 percent.
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“In turn, we recorded prices at record high levels in as many as 11 cities. For example, in Warsaw, the level of PLN 13,000 per m2 was broken for the first time, and PLN 11,000 per m2 in Gdańsk,” emphasized the authors of the report.
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On an annual basis, the rates are an average of 16 percent. higher. The leader in this respect is Białystok, where the average price per m2 increased by 28%. – from PLN 6,742 to PLN 8,662. The leaders were also: Szczecin – an increase of 23%, Łódź and Poznań – 20% each. up.
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Expander
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Apartment prices are medians, calculated on the basis of an analysis of 42,556 newly added online sales offers in March 2022.
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Creditworthiness down
The report also highlights the situation on the mortgage market. As indicated, the most important event is the entry into force of the new recommendation of the Polish Financial Supervision Authority and the seventh increase in interest rates in a row.
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“The combination of these two elements has significantly reduced the availability of mortgage loans. This caused that in just a month, creditworthiness decreased by about a quarter. Compared to September 2021, the period before the interest rate increases, in many cases the available amount of credit is by about half as much, “we read.
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The authors of the report explained that one of the requirements of the new KNF recommendation is that from April at the latest, banks had to start accepting the real cost of living to calculate the available loan amount. “This caused the creditworthiness of families with children to drop significantly” – noted.
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Experts indicated that in the case of a marriage with two children and a net income of PLN 6,000, the average available loan amount in September 2021 was PLN 315,000. zloty. Their calculations show that a month ago it was only 197,000. PLN, and currently only 136 thousand. zloty.
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“In turn, the same married couple without children will receive an average of PLN 311 thousand, which is more than twice as much as if they had two children” – added.
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Increase in loan installments
Interest rate increases are also accompanied by an increase in WIBOR indicators. As a rule, decisions of the Monetary Policy Council affect WIBOR, which at the same time translates into the amount of loan installments. The interest rate on loans consists of two elements: the bank’s margin and the WIBOR ratio. If a housing loan has a variable interest rate, then changes in WIBOR affect the amount of the installment.
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Some banks use the WIBOR 3M (three-month) rate, which means that the mortgage interest rate is updated every three months, counting from the moment the loan is disbursed. In the case of WIBOR 6M (six-month), the interest rate is updated every six months.
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WIBOR 3M is currently at 5.54, and WIBOR 6M – at 5.80. The authors of the report indicated that when the banks take into account their level, the average interest rate on loans with the lowest, 10 percent. the own contribution will be at the highest level since 2009. As they emphasized, the interest rate would have risen even faster had it not been for the banks’ cuts in loan margins, both from 10% and 20%. own contribution.
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According to experts, we currently have a “not very optimistic picture of the situation”. “In our opinion, the market faces at least a year of significant slowdown in sales. In the longer term, the situation looks more optimistic. We have an inflow of over 2 million immigrants from Ukraine, some of which will stay in Poland. Currently, they generate huge demand on the rental market. This raises rates and improves the profitability of investments. in apartments for rent, which at some point may restore investment demand “- they stated. According to the authors of the report, “in the long term, this situation will most likely translate into purchases of flats by Ukrainians, who will tie their future with our country”.
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photo-source">Main photo source: Shutterstock
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