Was Nancy Pelosi right to go to Taiwan and will this visit be a marker?
Nancy Pelosi came to address two subjects, which are in fact the same as those of the last Speaker of the House to come to Taiwan in 1997, Newt Gingrich. This is, on the one hand, to highlight the tremendous dynamism of Taiwanese democracy and recall the importance of parliamentary exchanges between Taiwan and the United States, which are quite frequent. And underline, on the other hand, the attachment of the United States to maintaining the status quo. This is what the vast majority of Taiwanese want today. If we compare 1997 and 2022, the themes are the same, but the balance of power has nothing to do with it. It is much more in favor of China. She has the same ambitions as in 1997, to take control of the island, but her means to exert pressure are much greater and, in this context, we understand why Nancy Pelosi wanted to come to Taiwan to affirm the opposition. Americans to the scenario of unilateral change and by force of the status quo by China.
Will this visit have been a good thing or not for Taiwan?
The visit will have been important for Nancy Pelosi, who appears to be courageous in the face of Chinese threats, but also for the Taiwanese. Society as a whole feels ostracized and considered – despite the importance of the country in the world economy, particularly with semiconductors – as plague victims within the international community. As a result, this visit shows that China has not succeeded in isolating Taiwanese society.
What could this visit change in the balance of power between the United States and China?
Sino-American relations have been deteriorating for several years. This visit took place three months before the congress of the Chinese Communist Party and a few days after a long telephone exchange between Joe Biden and Xi Jinping during which the latter strongly opposed it, so much so that China put itself in a impasse and is forced to react. But it should not be ignored that China is above all looking for a pretext. Pelosi’s visit didn’t trigger anything, it was instrumentalized because China ultimately wants to change the status quo. This desire is not new: the Chinese strategy of pressure, whether economic, military or diplomatic, has been constant since the election of Tsai Ing-wen in 2016. By using social networks in particular, the Chinese are creating the conditions for a crisis and want to give the impression that their reaction, through economic sanctions and military exercises, would be legitimate and would only be a response to an American provocation. But what Nancy Pelosi did is not unprecedented, and there is no change in American policy.
What lessons can be learned from China’s reaction?
What is extremely important are the military exercises that China will carry out. They are unprecedented. They will be carried out near the Taiwanese coasts, and even in part of the territorial waters, and including and for the first time on the other side of Taiwan, on the Pacific side. The People’s Liberation Army will simulate a full-scale blockade and this is part of the wider cognitive war that China has waged in Taiwan for years, which aims to discourage the population and test international reactions.
There are local elections in November in Taiwan and legislative and presidential elections in 2024. Will this episode have consequences?
The economic sanctions will have an impact on Taiwan and on the upcoming elections. The Chinese strategy is to choose targeted sanctions to have an impact on electoral processes, targeting constituencies they are trying to tilt. But we have no sign that the sanctions adopted by China in recent years have influenced in the direction that the Chinese wanted. It has often been the other way around.
How do you assess the risk of an invasion of Taiwan?
We have no indication for the moment of a military preparation to invade Taiwan. China intentionally used Nancy Pelosi’s visit to create a fourth crisis in the Taiwan Strait to change the status quo. But she won’t attack. We must not forget that the dynamic is on the side of the Chinese. They can afford to wait five years, ten years, and so on. China continues methodically to build its armed forces, to test the credibility of American security commitments but also the determination of each other to intervene and impose sanctions if there is a war.
The Three Previous Taiwan Strait Military Crises
1949: Mao Tse-tung’s communist forces succeed in repelling Chiang Kai-shek’s nationalists, who settle in Taiwan. In August 1954, the nationalists of the Republic of China – the official name of Taiwan – deployed thousands of soldiers on Kinmen and Matsu, two small islands located a few kilometers from the mainland. Communist China responded with artillery bombardment of the islands and the capture of the Yijiangshan Islands.
1958: Mao’s forces bombard Kinmen and Matsu with the aim of once again dislodging Nationalist troops. US President Dwight D. Eisenhower orders his military to escort and resupply their Taiwanese allies. Mao’s forces continued to shell Kinmen intermittently until 1979.
1995: China begins to test-fire missiles in the waters surrounding Taiwan to protest a visit by Taiwanese leader Lee Teng-hui to the United States. The United States dispatches two groups of aircraft carriers to pressure China to back down, and Lee Teng-hui wins a landslide election victory.
source : AFP
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How did the American allies perceive this initiative?
For the moment, it is the great silence. Europeans, Koreans, Japanese and Australians say very specifically that they are in favor of maintaining stability in the Taiwan Strait. But no one will officially comment on Pelosi’s visit. On the other hand, there could be reactions to military exercises because they are a brutal challenge to the status quo. Ideally, of course, they would coordinate to respond diplomatically to China, as the G7 countries have just done through a statement denouncing the use of a “pretext for aggressive military activity in the Taiwan Strait.
Is there anything to learn from the Ukrainian conflict?
As with Ukraine, there is the question here of our position if China does something. The Europeans have taken measures against Russia but what will be done against China when the time comes, on which we are much more dependent? It was not possible to prevent the conflict by making Putin understand that the price would be too high. Our whole objective vis-à-vis Taiwan is to avoid conflict. The Europeans have considerable leverage, they have to anticipate and display their determination, and in the end they have to make a powerful Europe a reality.
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