Blackouts in Ukraine in the fall and winter of 2023-2024 cannot be avoided.
Local authorities and energy companies have already developed schedules blackout in regions of Ukraine, they can be used from October 1. Power outages may begin with new attacks by the Russians, which may cause problems with the distribution or generation of current in Ukraine.
About it writes Reviewer.
Will there be blackouts
Most likely there will be outages. However, in the best-case scenario, they are possible during peak periods and not for everyone.
In Ukraine, according to the Ministry of Energy, about 70% of damaged thermal power plants and thermal power plants have been restored; preparations for winter will continue until October and there is time to increase the percentage. And although the situation is truly complicated, power engineers do not undertake to accurately predict what kind of outages will be and whether there will be any at all.
“Preparations for winter are still ongoing; we have time until November to prepare, in particular to go through difficult scenarios that may be caused by shelling by Russian troops,” said Andrei Gerus, head of the parliamentary committee on energy and housing and communal services.
According to him, Ukraine will enter the heating season with approximately the same capacity as last year. However, the question is not only whether there will be enough generation, but also the ability to distribute electricity. And here everything depends on how the Russian Federation will attack Ukraine’s energy infrastructure in the winter.
What kind of shutdowns might there be?
Shutdown schedules have already been developed in most regions. It is far from certain that they will be used, but there is an approximate understanding of how long the shutdown may last. Eg, in Lviv region they will be introduced on October 1 (they will begin to operate only by order of Ukrenergo and, if necessary, reduce consumption). The duration of outages can be up to two hours at a time and up to four hours a day.
In Poltava region, As noted in the regional state administration, there may be six power outages. Also, emergency and planned shutdown schedules have already been developed by Vinnitsaoblenergo. The company calls the consumer blackout program “fair and non-discriminatory.” Regarding the duration of blackouts, their frequency can vary from 2 to 4 hours in a row. The situation is the same in all regions.
If Ukraine is able to regain control of the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant in the coming months, and missile attacks and drone launches on Ukrainian cities stop, there may be no reason for widespread and prolonged shutdowns. Just as in the case of outages, it is extremely difficult to predict such a situation.
Let us remember that at the end of June, a TSN.ua source in the Cabinet of Ministers warned that with the onset of the autumn-winter period, the Russians will try to repeat the tactics Ukraine’s plunge into blackout. Therefore, the state is working with partners to strengthen Ukrainian air defense.
And the chairman of the board of Ukrenergo, Vladimir Kudrytsky, warned that in autumn and winter in the power system There will be a generation deficit, so I advised citizens to save electricity.
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2023-09-10 20:46:23
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