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Anyone who hoped that the grain agreement between Ukraine and Russia was a prelude to a peace agreement was wrong. On Saturday, the Ukrainian port city of Odessa was again bombarded with missiles.
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On Friday, the Russian defense minister said Ukraine did not have to worry about attacks on ports. So nothing turns out to be true.
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The good show that Russia is making internationally with the grain deal does not mean that the country is taking a more modest stance in the war, experts say. In fact, Russia’s ambitions have grown before.
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‘Russia also earns from deal’
It seemed striking that Russia and Ukraine reached an agreement in the midst of wartime. But that is not so bad, according to strategic analyst Paul van Hooft (The Hague Center for Strategic Studies). “Historically you often have that. Sometimes states, while they are at each other’s ends in every possible way, have to trade with each other. That just goes on.”
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And yet: with this deal, Russia is supporting its opponent’s economy. Because it is mainly Ukrainian grain that can now enter the world market. What interests does Russia have in the agreement?
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In any case, an economic advantage, says Russia expert Hubert Smeets. “Due to the grain agreement, Turkey has let go of the obstacles it had imposed on Russia in the Black Sea. Russia can now also supply a lot of grain to countries in Africa and Asia via the Black Sea.”
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Russia cannot afford to lose those countries that sometimes turn a blind eye to war.
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But perhaps more important for Putin, says Smeets, is the political advantage he hopes for. “Through the grain agreement, he gives the impression to countries in Africa: we ensure that you have food. He wants to prevent those countries from providing support to his opponent.”
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Van Hooft agrees. “For Russia it is very important to win the battle for the narrative. Who is to blame for the failure of food transport to part of Africa and the Middle East? For food prices to skyrocket and famines to start?”
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The Kremlin is trying to portray the West as the culprit, says Van Hooft. Putin wants to retain the support of the few countries that help him with, for example, arms supplies and circumvent western sanctions.
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Putin also does not want to alienate the countries that are largely aloof from the war. Van Hooft: “Russia cannot afford to lose the countries that sometimes turn a blind eye to the war. A famine due to a grain shortage could have changed their attitude.”
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Fight against West
Gathering support for Putin is part of an even bigger plan, says Smeets. “Recently, Putin said in the Russian parliament: the West must stop determining what happens in the world, this is a war against the Western world order. According to Putin, the war, or what he calls ‘the military operation’, is the beginning of a world in which major world powers have their own sphere of influence and in which Europe is disconnected from the United States.”
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But Putin is not yet very successful in binding other countries. Smeets: “Even in his own former Soviet area, he hardly gets any support for the war.”
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That while Russia could really use foreign aid. Because the war is not exactly going well for Putin, while his military ambitions remain high. Saturday’s rocket attacks on Odessa show that clearly, says Smeets. “The attack fits into Putin’s strategy to do as much economic damage as possible in Ukraine and eventually conquer this area.”
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“Earlier this week, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov left no doubt about this: Russia wants to take possession of the entire east and south of Ukraine. And that includes Odessa. The initial goal of liberating only the Donbas in the east of Ukraine from Nazis, as the Kremlin calls it, has expanded considerably.”
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