According to the UCE Research and WSB Universities cyclical “Retail Store Price Index” report, in September it was more expensive in stores by an average of 24.1%. compared to the same period last year. In August there was an increase from year to year. at the level of 23.7 percent and in July – 18.6 percent. This shows that prices are rising from month to month. Once again all the twelve categories analyzed go up. In eleven of them, the jump was double-digit. The study included 52 of the everyday products most frequently chosen by consumers. In total, almost 40 thousand. retail prices from over 40 thousand. stores belonging to 63 chain stores.
– The price growth dynamics in September, similar to that of August, testify to the persistently high level of Polish consumption, which does not have a positive effect on the slowdown in inflation. Direct impact on the above The negative emotions related to the uncertainty about the prices of electricity on the European market and of other energy carriers, mainly coal, have had a result. This is of particular importance at this time, before the autumn-winter season, which is the period of greatest demand for these goods, comments Dr. Hubert Gąsiński, an expert at the WSB University of Warsaw.
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According to Marcin Luziński, economist at Santander Bank Polska, the prevalence of price increases is precisely the expression of strong inflationary pressure. We are used to it, because recently such phenomena occurred in the Polish economy in the 90s. Subsequently, if the price increase accelerated, it was usually due to shocks in selected categories that were quickly absorbed by the economy. This is not the case now and subsequent categories affect other nominal values. As the expert points out, history shows that when the price increase reaches a double-digit level, it could take years to return to a low dynamic. So we should get used to strong excursions, because they will not disappear quickly.
– In recent months, due to the hospitality market, suppliers have passed on the increasing production costs to the customer. As a rule, recipients of goods and services accept it until the real value of wages and salaries drops so much due to inflation that consumers will have to forgo the purchase of certain products. When the price is too high for buyers’ income, demand falls. As a result, sales will decrease and this will force manufacturers to reduce margins, which could either lower the price or keep it at an acceptable level for the market – says Dr Edyta Wojtyla, economist at WSB Poznań University.
The biggest increases
The analysis also shows this Once again, fatty products increased the most – this time by 57.4 percent yes. In this category, oil prices increased by 61.6%, margarine by 60.1% and butter by 50.4%. As Julita Pryzmont, a retail expert at research and analysis agency Hiper-Com Poland notes, such products have been driving the price spiral in Poland for months and that won’t change as long as there is a war in our eastern neighborhood. Russia and Ukraine are major producers of vegetable fats.
– There is a problem with some vegetable fats, such as sunflower oil or olive oil, because they become more expensive. This phenomenon is offset by the relatively high supply of rapeseed, but it means an increase in demand and, consequently, an increase in the price. In the aforementioned Everything that is important to the consumer falls into this category. In addition, the increase in the prices of energy, fuel, feed, labor and supply chain services makes animal fats increasingly expensive – says Dr. Maria Andrzej Faliński, vice president of the Forum Association for Economic Dialogue, former director general of POHID.
The second place in the ranking of the highest prices belongs to bulk products – 43.6 percent yes. Here it was definitely the most expensive price sugar – up to 100 percent Then there are salt and pasta – 37.8 percent. and 37.3 per cent In turn, the price of flour increased by 23% and rice by 19.7%.
– The increase in the prices of bulk products is mainly due to the increase in production costs, including energy and transport. The items listed are in the first group of needs, so the manufacturers are sure they will keep sales, so they added the increase in the cost of production to the prices. In the case of sugar, it was speculation on the market, as a result of which consumers were stocking up on unwarranted goods. This triggered a further increase in prices due to the excess of demand over supply – analyzes Dr. Wojtyla.
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Instead in the third position in the list showing the highest y / y increments. there is meat – 38 percent At the same time, the price of poultry increased by 48.5%. Beef increased by 38.2% and pork by 27.2%.
– In my opinion, there are three main reasons for the increase in meat prices. First, the decline in demand during the 2020-2021 pandemic, especially in gastronomy, prompted growers to reduce supply. Secondly, the increase in cereal prices means an increase in feed costs. And thirdly, the weak exchange rate of the zloty also increases the profitability of Polish meat exports, adds an economist from Santander Bank Polska.
Vegetables last
In September, the so-called other products – 37.4 percent yes. Here it is more Cat food prices have gone up – 46.2 percent, as well as dogs – 45.8 percent. For comparison, baby diapers were 20.4% more expensive. Every year. In turn, the fifth position was occupied by dairy products – 28.6%. yes. In this case, the biggest increases concern milk – 37.5%, yellow cheese 34.3% and white cheese 32.2%.
– Increase of the so-called other products, in particular pet food, have been caused by the increasingly expensive raw materials necessary for their production. Added to this were the increase in energy and transport costs. Cereal prices are also important in this category. Consumers should be prepared for slow but successive hikes until flour and fuel prices stabilize – says Dr. Gąsiński.
In September, the minimum y / y. more expensive vegetables – 8.5 percent In front of them you can see fruit – 11 percent, as well as bread – 14.8 percent. According to the economist of the WSB in Poznań, the lower growth dynamics of the price of fruit and vegetables in recent months is the result of the seasonality of these products. On the other hand, bread is a staple commodity and its price is largely the effect of reducing producers’ margins.
– The slower dynamics of rising bread prices can be quite illusory. It can often be observed that the grammage of baked goods has decreased compared to last year. This procedure serves to give the consumer the feeling that the price of the basic products in this category has not soared. In addition there is also the fact that the large chains carry out this type of cooking themselves and therefore can impose a lower margin than the above. products. However, in the long run, the stores may not resist it and will have to heavily interfere with the final price – sums up Julita Pryzmont of Hiper-Com Poland.
