What the announcement consists of is not yet known. It’s also not easy to speculate what might happen, says retired lieutenant general and former Chief of the Defense Staff, Arne Bård Dalhaug.
He believes the president can insist that the annexed areas in Ukraine are Russian and express support for the Russian operation in Donbass.
– But in terms of substance, it’s difficult to say what this announcement will contain, because it doesn’t have much to say, Dalhaug tells Dagbladet.
– There may be some changes
The enlarged meeting of the Ministry of Defense is held every year, where the announcement will be made.
The dean of intelligence at the Norwegian Defense Academy, Tom Røseth, is also expecting a monologue on the situation and military ambitions.
He also believes that Putin able to coming to announce changes and adjustments in strategy.
– It will most likely engage Russia in a long war against Ukraine, says Røseth.
Also consider a possibility of adjustments in defense management. Both Defense Chief Valery Gerasimov and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu have come under much criticism, but they believe the intelligence teacher is safe.
The main goal of the speech, according to Røseth, is to strengthen support for the war in the neighboring country.
– He wants to strengthen NATO’s image as an external enemy. At the same time, he will probably try to seek support in Asia and Africa, for example by talking about Western imperialism and colonialism. Putin’s rhetoric will likely become familiar, so the question is whether there could be any surprises regarding strategy in Ukraine.
Possible shock plans: – A constant threat
– Used to the fullest
That Putin doesn’t have too much substance to add to the announced announcement is supported by the fact that he has decided to suspend his annual marathon press conference this year.
It has been a tradition almost every year since he came to power, during which he answered questions from both the public and the Russian press for several hours.
– He used it as an arena to present himself as a father of the fatherland and a modern tsar all these years, and he used it to the fullest, says Dalhaug.
Its annual presentation to the Russian National Assembly probably won’t take place this year either.
– The fact that it is held annually is enshrined in the Russian constitution, so it was also postponed, indicates that it has nothing special to announce to the Russian people. If he had, he would have held the press conference, and also announced it to the National Assembly, as required by law, Dalhaug says.
– May announce industrial mobilization
If indeed this is a major announcement, from an international perspective, the timing of Putin’s state visit to Belarus is interesting.
Jarmo Lindberg, a retired general and former defense chief in Finland, thinks so. He wonders if some form of enhanced cooperation could be announced.
– Belarus has already cooperated with Russia during the war effort, but it will still be a long leap for the Belarusian leader to join forces with Russia, Lindberg says.
FORMER HEAD OF DEFENSE IN FINLAND: Jarmo Lindberg. Photo: US Department of Defense
sea View
In addition to military equipment, the Russians lack weapons. The former defense chief therefore believes that it could be a relevant topic even for an important announcement.
He would be surprised if the president comments on cooperation with Iran. Another option, according to him, is the announcement of an economic and industrial mobilization.
– It could involve moving to a war economy, in which Russian businesses are forced by law to produce more weapons and do it faster, in response to the fact that they have used up almost all of their advanced weapons in Ukraine.
Lindberg also points out that he finds it very difficult to predict what the Russian president will announce this time.
– I may be wrong. It can come with a big surprise.
– Then the Russians collapse
He was supposed to hold a strategy meeting
It was to be held at the headquarters of military units involved in the war in the neighboring country.
According to Russian state media, Putin has asked commanders in all operational directions for proposals on what Russia should do, both in the short and medium term.
Røseth will be surprised if the president manages to adjust political ambitions or military strategic goals in Ukraine.
– Moscow seems quite determined to continue the annexation and to make strong demands that Ukraine will not accept. I don’t expect relaxation or less fighting. Quite the opposite: they will use the mobilized to carry out offensive operations as soon as they get the opportunity.
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