WASHINGTON DC, KOMPAS.com – Office intelligence AS assessing the President Russia Vladimir Putin is likely to cause more violence and destruction in Ukraine.
The move came as a projection of anger and frustration over the failure of its military, which has been attacking Ukraine for more than two weeks. Even though he estimated that he would be able to dominate in just two days.
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Russia still has a tremendous military advantage and could bombard Ukraine for weeks more.
Yet, as the rest of the world reacted to the gruesome images of the war he started, Putin remained isolated from domestic pressure by what CIA Director William Burns called a “propaganda bubble.”
Putin’s mindset is very important for the West to understand, given the amount of military assistance to Ukraine, Putin’s threat to directly attack NATO countries, to the possibility of the Russian leader reaching the nuclear button.
US intelligence officials spoke for two days before the US Congress last week, publicly voicing concerns about what Putin might do.
Those concerns are increasingly shaping discussions about what US policymakers are willing to do for Ukraine.
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Over two decades, Putin has achieved total dominance of Russia’s government and security services, ruling with a small inner circle, marginalizing dissent, and jailing or killing his opposition.
He has long criticized the breakup of the Soviet Union, rejected Ukraine’s claim to sovereignty, and thought of a nuclear war ending with Russia as a “martyr.”
Burns told US lawmakers he believed Putin’s aggression was “‘boiling’ by a combination of years of grievance and ambition.”
Putin expects to seize Kyiv within two days, Burns said. On the contrary, his military had failed to capture major cities and had lost several thousand soldiers.
The West has imposed sanctions and other measures that have crippled the Russian economy and reduced the standard of living of oligarchs and ordinary citizens.
Much of the foreign currency that Russia has amassed as a bulwark against sanctions is now also frozen in banks abroad.
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There is no clear end of war
Burns is a former US ambassador to Moscow who has met with Putin many times. He told lawmakers in response to a question about the Russian president’s mental state that he didn’t believe Putin was crazy.
“I think Putin is angry and frustrated right now,” he said. “He is likely to double down and try to grind up the Ukrainian military without regard for civilian casualties.”
According to Burns, Russia’s recent, unsubstantiated claims about the US helping Ukraine develop chemical or biological weapons, suggest that Putin himself may be ready to use those weapons in a “false warning” operation.
There is no clear path to ending the war. It is almost inconceivable that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who has won worldwide admiration for leading his country’s resistance, would suddenly recognize Russia’s annexation of Crimea or support granting new autonomy to Russia’s friendly eastern part of Ukraine.
Even if Russia took control of Kyiv and overthrew Zelenskyy, Putin would have to take responsibility for the Western-backed uprising in the country of more than 40 million people.
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“He (Putin) ultimately does not have a stable politics in the face of what will continue to be fierce resistance from Ukraine,” Burns said.
Avril Haines, President Joe Biden’s director of national intelligence, said Putin “considers this a war that he cannot come out of as the loser.
But what he may want to accept as a win may change over time, given the significant costs he incurs.”
US intelligence analysts think that Putin’s recent increase in Russia’s nuclear alert level “may be intended to prevent the West from providing additional support to Ukraine,” he said.
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